HomeMy WebLinkAboutNB 2 O.C. COMM RAIL 10-1-90a
NEW BUSI ESS N0:
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10-1-90
Inter - Com
DATE: OCTOBER 1, 1990
TO: WILLIAM HUSTON, CITY MANAGER
FROM: COMMUNITY DEVELOPMENT DEPARTMENT
SUBJECT: ORANGE COUNTY -COMMUTER RAIL ACTION PLAN
RECOMMENDATION
It is recommended that the City Manager be authorized to transmit
identified concerns on the Orange County Commuter Rail Action Plan
to the Orange County Transportation Commission.
The Orange County Transportation Commission (OCTC) recently
released a Draft Commuter Rail Study and Action Plan. The purpose
of the project was to examine the opportunities to provide expanded
comprehensive commuter rail service along the Los Angeles to San
Diego. rail (LOSSAN) corridor from Oceanside to Los Angeles.
Establishing commuter rail service, paralleling the congested I75
Freeway is a major goal of the Twenty Year Master Plan for
transportation adopted by OCTC.
While staff supports the objective of enhanced alternative commuter
circulation within the Southern California region, there are a
number of topics addressed in the Commuter Rail Action Plan that
the City of Tustin should be concerned about as follows:
1. The report identifies a number of specific future scenarios or
alternatives to test the patronage implications of expanded
commuter rail services between Oceanside and San Diego. Two
alternatives (alternative 1 and Alternative 5) need to be
further evaluated for their potential environmental impacts on
adjacent residential areas in Tustin on the northside of the
current Amtrak corridor. Alternative 1 would result in adding
nine OCTC trains between Oceanside and Los Angeles.
Alternative 5 proposes faster rail service time (by 100).
2. The report recommends a new station stop in Tustin in a
location generally bounded by Jamboree, Edinger and the
railroad to the north. There are at least three other
City Council Report
October 1, 1990
Page 2
alternatives identified in the report: site B at Harvard and
the railroad in Irvine (southwest quadrant) ; site C at Harvard
and the railroad in Irvine (northwest quadrant) and site D at
Harvard and railroad in Irvine (southeast quadrant). While
OCTC is recommending the Tustin site, there has been no
contact or coordination between OCTC and the City of Tustin on
the site. The City of Irvine, on the otherhand has begun
lobbying City of Tustin staff for a commitment on the Tustin
site which they see as a natural linkage opportunity with a
proposed connecting guideway (light rail system) being
proposed in the vicinity of Harvard as part of the "Urban
Village" proposal.
Unfortunately, the Tustin site has already been sold to
Bedford properties who will be processing a development
proposal on the site. The starts, slowing and stops to the
proposed Tustin site could also have significant environmental
impacts on those adjacent residential areas in Tustin on the
northside of the tracks (ie: Tustin Meadows and Peppertree).
In summary, no site within the jurisdiction of Tustin should
be identified in the final report as a OCTC recommendation
without concurrence by the City of Tustin.
3. The report identifies the possibility of track improvements
including double tracks and sidings between Santa Ana and
Irvine, as programmed by the LOSSAN. Impacts of these
improvements need to be evaluated.
Based on the above identified issues, it is recommended that the
City Council authorize the City Manager to forward Tustin comments
on the Plan to OCTC prior to October 5, 1990.
Christine Shingleto
Director of Commun' y Development
CAS:kf/commuter.cas
cc: Bob Ledendecker
Community
Development Department
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ORANGE COUNTY TRANSPORTATION COMMISSION
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
to Draft Final Report
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0-- September 1990
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The Orange County Transportation Commission presents this summary of the findings of
the Orange County Commuter Rail Study and Action Plan. The one-year project has
examined the opportunities to provide comprehensive commuter rail service along the
LOSSAN rail corridor from Oceanside to Los Angeles. Establishing commuter rail service
in this corridor, which parallels the congested 1-5 Freeway, is a major goal of the Twenty
Year Master Plan for Transportation adopted by the OCTC.
This summary organizes the findings of the project according to the following subjects:
Ridership Estimation
Recommendations for New Stations
Draft Operating Plan
Capital Investments
Operating Expenses
Organization and Management
Provision of Service Components
Ridership Estimation
A
RIDERSHIP ESTIMATION
Executive Summary Notes
The following outlines the Orange County Commuter Rail ridership estimates based upon
a computer model developed for this Study and Action Plan. This model is the first
practical statistical instrument to test the ridership potential for commuter rail services in
Southern California. The model has been repeatedly tested and adjusted until its
processes and predictions reflected the behavior of current commuter rail riders, as
reported in a survey taken in November 1989. The survey, which was conducted by the
Orange County Transit District and the OCTC, examined the travel patterns and
characteristic decisions of AM peak period riders on current AMTRAK "San Diegan"
services from San Diego to Los Angeles. The final form of the model predicts current
ridership within 3% of actual overall survey results.
Population and employment estimates for 1995 for Orange County and the surrounding
region were obtained from the Orange County Environmental Management Agency for
Orange County and from Southern California Association of Governments (SCAG) for the
rest of the region. As in all models, the behavioral characteristics of current riders are
assumed to be the same for future riders. That is, future riders are likely to make the
same decisions as current riders when faced with changes in travel time or cost for
commuting trips either by car or train, when available.
The statistics and charts in the following chapter can be summarized as follows:
Currently, there are about 4,600 daily riders on the LOSSAN corridor trains from
San Diego to Los Angeles.
Orange County Commuter Rail accounts for about 375 of these trips on its daily
round trip as of August 1990.
Using scenarios presented in the Operating Plan section of this report, adding 9
round trips (including the current Orange County Commuter Rail service) to the
current AMTRAK offering of 8 round trips, expands the daily ridership in the
Corridor to a range of 8,200 to 9,700.
Therefore, the incremental ridership increase directly attributable to an expanded
Orange County Commuter Rail service consists of about 3,600 to 5,100 new trips.
Of course, this increase will not materialize instantly. ft is wise to expect that a steady
cumulative growth will come from modest beginnings, with gains resulting from reliable
service, a reasonable network of feeder and distributor services from the stations (also
assumed in the modeling process) and a concerted marketing effort.
The model also suggests that sharp increases in the cost of auto commuting can
significantly raise the ridership attraction of the rail service. Auto costs were calculated
according to standard SCAG procedures and represent as accurately as possible the
regional driving costs in effect at the time of the survey. The model implies that a
pronounced rise in the cost of driving in the region can have an extremely strong positive
effect on the attractiveness of a full commuter service. In fact, ridership could increase
100% if there were a 25% rise in full auto operating costs. Even if the effect were only
half as strong as indicated, a strong positive relationship between rising costs of auto
operation and the attractiveness of an Orange County Commuter Rail service can only
provide a greater margin of safety for the ridership estimates. In the present Study and
Action Plan, however, it has been considered prudent to report ridership estimates that
rely on the original auto cost levels for the survey period (November 1989).
Revenues reported in the final charts of this chapter should be analyzed with great
caution. The statistical model found that current AMTRAK corridor fares fit an equation
of $1.32 plus $0.12 per mile. The OCTC discount fares currently in place are 30% lower
than current AMTRAK fares and were used as inputs to the estimating process.
Preliminary revenue estimates calculated for the various ridership estimates based on this
fare calculation would be in the range of $11 million to $14 million per year. Using this
method, revenues for the "San Diegan" services operating today would be about $9
million. The difference between the projected revenue range of $11 - 14 million and
today's $9 million gives an indication of what revenue might be expected from an Orange
County commuter service. Using this method it is estimated that a commuter operation
could recoup from $2 - 5 million annually from passenger fares.
This can only be a very rough calculation of what future revenues might be. A more exact
estimate must be based on a fare system that more closely responds to the needs of the
commuter rail environment. Moreover, this ideal fare system must mesh well with those
of other commuter rail operations that are planned for the Southern California region. It
is strongly recommended that a unified regional commuter rail tariff be established for all
of Southern California as part of the ongoing SB 1402 commuter rail coordinating
process. When that process is further advanced, the study team will be able to report
more reliable levels of income from ticket sales based on fare system discussions now
in progress before the final draft of this Action Plan. Orange County recommendations
for these discussions are now being formulated in conjunction with the operating plans
in the Action Plan.
Meanwhile, operating costs will be stated in this project report without reference to
offsetting revenue. It is to be understood that any revenues obtained would reduce the
net operating expenditures of the commuter rail service.
ORA aE COUNTY COMMUT, RAIL
PATRONAGE ESTIMATES
• Current Lossan Daily Trips
Includes OCTC Trains: 375
• 1995 Range of Estimates
. Range of Commuter Rail Growth
3L/BS470/2529
4,600
85200 - 95700
33600 - 53100
C11APTER 7
pATRONAGE FORECASTS
'Ibis chapter describes the results of using the Commuter Rail mode split model to test the patronage
implications of adding new trains, adding new station stops, and reducing fares in the Oceanside to Los
Angeles portion of the LOSSAN Corridor.
A. ALTERNATIVES TESTED
The commuter rail mode split model was used to 8 specific existing and future scenarios. Results from
these 8 model runs were then extrapolated and interpolated to yield results for additional future scenarios.
The 8 existing and future scenarios tested with the model plus the calibration run are:
Calibration Run.
The calibration run generated baseline patronage information for comparing the model results
of the future runs. The calibration run assumed 1989 land use, the basic 1989 eight daily train
AMTRAK service, and the 1989 AMTRAK 10 -trip fare schedule of $1.32 to board plus 12
cents per mile.
Run -1. Add One Train - 1990
This alternative takes the calibration run and tests the impact of adding the OCTC special
train between fan Juan Capistrano and Los Angeles (Train #569 northbound in the AM
peak, Train #582 southbound in the PM peak). This alternative assumed the 1989 land use
and 1990 fare schedule with the 20% fare discount for the new train.
Alt. 0. Add One Train - 1995
This alternative shows the expected patronage in five years (1995) for the current 8 daily
AMTRAK train service plus the one special OCTC train (NB AM, SB PM). The introductory
20% fare reduction was assumed to be dropped by 1995. Thus all fares on all trains would be
equivalent to the current AMTRAK 10 trip fare level. This run includes the new stop at
Irvine/Spectrum made by one of the existing AMTRAK trains and the new OCTC train.
Alt. i. Add Nine Trains - 1995
This alternative shows the impacts of adding 9 OCTC trains (1 of which is already operating)
between Oceanside and Los Angeles. The 1 existing OCTC train (which currently runs only
north of San Juan Capistrano) was assumed to be extended south to Oceanside as well. The
standard AMTRAK 10 trip fare schedule was used in this model run.
This run includes new stops for the OCTC trains at Buena Park, Tustin, Irvine, Mission Viejo,
KM
at
and San Clemente. Only one of the existing 8 AMTRAK
other new stations are served exclusively the
b
Irvine station in the morning peak period. The Y Y
the new OCTC service.
Alt. 2. All Trains Stopping at All Stops - 1995
This alternative is identical to Alternative #1 with the exception that all 8 of the existing
AMTRAK trains would also stop at all the same stations as the nine new OCTC trains. The
fares are unchanged from Alternative #1.
Alt. 3.30% Fare Discount - 1995
This alternative is identical to Alternative #2 with the exception that a 30% fare reduction
(below current 1989 -9010 -trip fare levels) has been applied across the board to all OCTC and
AMTRAK service in the corridor.
Alt. 4.25% Gasoline Increase -1995
This alternative is identical to #3 with the exception that perceived auto operating costs (of
which gasoline cost is a major component) have been increased by 25%. Thus this alternative
shows the impacts of a combined gasoline cost increase and a 30% rail fare reduction.
Alt. 5. 10% Faster Rail Service - 1995
This alternative is identical to #4 with the exception that rail line haul times (including station
stops) have been reduced by 10%.
The table below summarizes the patronage results for the above alternatives.
TABLE 22
SUMMARY OF
MODEL RUN RESULTS
CALIS. RUN -1 RUN 0 RUN 1 RUN 2 RUN 3 RUN 4 RUN 5
DAILY PASSENGERS: 4,750 5,030 5,950 8,200 8,700 9,700 19,500 20,200
ANNUAL PASSENGERS: 1.69 1.79 2.12 2.93 3.11 3.44 6.94 7.20
(millions)
PERCENT INCREASE:
RELATIVE TO CALIB.RUN: 0.0% 6.0% 25.4% 73.4% 84.0% 103.6% 310.7% 326.0%
INCREMENTAL INCREASE: 0.0% 6.0% 18.3% 38.2% 6.1% 10.6% 101.8% 3.7%
39
II. FORECAST METIiODOLOGY
Thi AM peak, Daily, and Annual patronage forecasts for the LOSSAN corridor were derived from the
AM peak home-based work trip commuter rail mode split model using a multi -step process.
I. -As - tions used in the Model Forecasts
Definition of AM Peak Period Service
*rhe proposed AM peak period service improvements for each alternative were coded into the model.
Since the running time of trains in the corridor is approximately 2 hours from Oceanside to Los Angeles,
it was necessary to use different criteria for defining AM peak period service for each direction of travel
in the corridor. Northbound trains were considered to be operating during the AM peak period if they
arrived in downtown Los Angeles between 7:00 AM and 9:05 AM. Southbound trains were included in
the AM peak period if they arrived in Santa Ana between 7:00 AM and 9:00 AM.
Running Times
The existing 8 AMTRAK trains were assumed to retain their current running times and average speeds
of 48.7 mph in the northbound direction and 45.3 mph in the southbound direction. The aine new OCTC
trains between Oceanside and Los Angeles would make several extra stops and therefore were assumed
to operate at average speeds of 41.9 mph in both directions. The running time from Oceanside to Los
Angeles for these trains is approximately 2 hours and S minutes.
Station Stops
New station stops for the OCTC trains were coded for Buena Park, Tustin, Irvine/Spectrum, and Mission
Viejo. New walk access links were coded connecting selected zones to these: new station stops. The
existing park and Ride access links to the San Juan Capistrano, Fullerton, and Santa Ana stations were
redistributed among the 4 new stations and 3 existing stations. No changes were made to the Anaheim
station walk or park and ride access links.
Fares
The model runs have generally used 1989 costs carried through to 1995. This is equivalent to assuming
that average income and all travel costs, by all modes would increase together at the same rate of inflation
(thus canceling out the relative effects of inflation).
199S Trip Tables
The 1995 AM peak home based work person trip table (all modes) was obtained from Orange County
EMA and compressed to the 109 zone trip table. This table contains person trips for Los Angeles and
Orange Counties. Trips to and from San Diego County do not appear in these tables provided by EMA.
San Diego County rail passenger trips were manually added later as described in section 3 below.
The 1995 trip table has 2.47 million person trips, which is about 8.8% higher than the 2.68 million trips
contained in EMA's 1987 trip table. The 1995 table however has a more rapid rate of growth of
approximately 14% for travel within the I-5 corridor.
40
2 Exuansion to Daily and Annual Patronage
The commuter rail model forecasts AM peak period home based work trips using the train to get to work
for Los Angeles and Orange counties only. AM peak home based work trips to and from San Diego
County must be added to the model results. The total corridor AM peak home based work trips must
then be expanded to total AM peak period trips (all purposes), daily trips, and annual trips.
Total Daily trips (on a typical November weekday) are estimated from total AM peak trips by multiplying
the AM trips by the ratio of daily to AM peak AMTRAK ridership observed in 1989. This ratio in 1989
was 3.368.
The total Annual patronage is estimated by multiplying the weekday ridership by the ratio of 355.9, which
was the observed ratio of November 1989 weekday AMTRAK ridership (exclusive of the holidays) to
annual 1989 ridership.
3 Estimation of San Diego County Ridership
The expected growth in AM peak home based work (HBV) commuter rail ridership between San Diego
County and Orange and Los Angeles counties was first estimated for no service improvements. Additional
commuter rail travel increases were then forecasted for the improvements to rail service to and from
Oceanside.
Between 1985 and 1989, Caltrans has estimated that travel on I-5 freeway at the Orange/San Diego
county line has increased by 13.7% in the peak hour and 29.2% all day. For the 6 year period, 1989-1995,
this extrapolates to an increase of 20% in peak hour traffic and 44% in daily traffic.
The population of San Diego has increased from 875,000 in 1980 to an estimated 1.12 million in 1990.
This historic 28% growth over the last ten years extrapolates into an estimated 17% growth over the 6
year period, 1989-1995.
The population of Oceanside increased from 77,000 in 1980 to an estimated 126,000 in 1990, a 64%
increase. Extrapolating this growth to 1995 implies a 38% growth between 1989 and 1995.
The I-5 freeway trends indicate a 20% growth in peak hour traffic in the corridor, while the population
trends of San Diego and Oceanside indicate growth of between 17% and 38% can be expected. For the
purposes of forecasting baseline (no service improvements) AMTRAK ridership between San Diego
County and the rest of the LOSSAN Corridor we will use 20% (between 1989 and 1995) for the San
Diego and Del Mar Stations combined, and 30% for the Oceanside station (the latter rate reflects the
higher growth rate of Oceanside).
41
The resulting estimates of baseline San Diego County ridership are as follows:
TABLE 23
AM PEAK HOME BASED WORK RIDERSHIP FORECAST
1989 1995
Direction Oceanside San Diego Total Oceanside San Diego
Tot=
Northbound 152 195 347 198 234 432
Southbound 78 235 313 101 282 383
TOTAL 230 430 660 299 516 815
b
Note: San Diego estimates include Del Mar station.
The impacts of service improvements to Oceanside were then estimated for each of the alternatives based
upon the percent increase in ridership predicted by the model for the San Clemente station. Thus the
3
AM peak home based work ridership forecasts for Oceanside are as follows for each alternative:
TABLE
24
AM Peak HBW Trips - Oceanside to Points North
'
Run #0
Run #1
Run #2
Run #3
Run #4
Run #5
Northbnd _
(depart)
198
324
360
425
816
849
Southbnd
(arrive)
101
117
127
147
216
225
Total
299
441
487
1 572
1032
1 1074
11 YJ
C. ItESUL'CS
Impacts of Improving Rail Service
Total annual patronage in the LOSSAN corridor would increase from 1.69 million in 1989 to 2.12 million
in 1995 with continuation of the rail service existing in late 1990 (8 daily round trip AMTRAK trains plus
one round trip OCTC train). This is a 25% increase (or 3.8% compounded per year) between 1989 and
1995 (see Figure 3). The OCTC train started in April 1990 with the additional station stop at Irvine
,=unts about one quarter of this increase since 1989. The other three-quarters of the increase is due
simply to the overall growth of travel in the corridor.
The peak load point in the AM peak period would be northbound, between Fullerton and Los Angeles.
At this point a maximum of 770 passengers would be onboard the 3 northbound trains. This is slightly
over 60% of the estimated 1200 seat capacity of the 3 existing northbound AM peak period trains. In
1989, the two AMTRAK northbound trains had about 600 passengers onboard at this peak load point.
Adding 8 more OCTC trains and adding stops at Buena Park, Tustin, Mission Viejo, and San Clemente
(currently only southbound trains stop at this last station), would increase patronage to approximately 2.93
million annual boarding passengers (a 38% increase over continuing the current service, and a 73%
increase over 1989 levels).
Having all AMTRAK trains stop at the new stations (in addition to the eight new OCTC trains) would
increase demand to approximately 3.11 million annual boarding passengers (a 56% increase over
continuing current service, and an 84% over 1989 levels).
Note that having all AMTRAK trains stop at the new stations (as well as the 8 added OCTC trains)
would increase ridership about the same amount as adding a single OCTC train between San Juan
Capistrano and Los Angeles.
2. Sensitivity Anal,
The above results assumed no change in fares or gasoline costs. A 30% fare reduction for all trains
(OCTC plus AMTRAK) would result in a 11% increase in ridership over the levels discussed in the
preceding section (see Figure 4). A 25% increase in perceived auto operating costs (of which gasoline
is the primary component) would increase ridership by up to 100% (assuming there were adequate line
haul and station parking capacity to handle the increase. The ridership forecasts are much more sensitive
to auto cost increases since they -influence the entire auto trip and portions of the rail trip (auto access
to the stations). The rail fare however affects only a portion of the total train trip cost (access and egress
costs are unaffected), and has no affect on the cost of a trip by auto.
L. Station Usace
The 4 most active stations in the LOSSAN corridor in 1995 (with 9 OCTC trains and the additional stops)
would be Los Angeles, San Diego, Santa Ana, and Oceanside (in that order)(see Figure 5). Table 25
shows the projected AM peak, Daily, and Annual passenger boardings at each station. Note that Figure
5 shows the AM peak boardings and alightings for Alternative 2 with: 9 OCTC trains (8 of which are new
trains), all AMTRAK trains stopping at all stations, and existing fares.
43
r
The new Buena Park station would obtain much of its new patronage from people currently going to the
Fullerton station; however, the Buena Park station results in a 36% increase in total daily boarding
passengers at the 2 stations (compare Alt. #0 and Alt+ #1 in Table 25). The new Buena Park station is
especially attractive for southbound commuters (see Figure 5), due to its better location closer to the I-5
freeway.
The new station stops at Mission -Viejo and San Clemente (for the northbound direction) will tend to
draw patrons from commuters who currently go to the San Juan Capistrano station. However, by
increasing the number of locations within convenient access distance of the LOSSAN corridor, these new
stations also result in a doubling of total daily patronage at the 3 stations (compare Alt. #0 and Alt. #1).
The new station stop at Tustin appears to open up a new market area for the corridor without
significantly drawing down the ridership at Irvine or at Santa Ana. -
4. Revenue Analysis
The new service with 9 OCTC trains, and all trains stopping at all stations should generate fare box
revenues of about $14.4 million dollars a year in 1995 (in 1989 constant dollars), total of both AMTRAK
and OCTC revenues for new and existing services (see Table 26).
These revenues are estimated assuming the current 10 trip fare of $1.32 per boarding passenger plus 12
cents per passenger -mile. The 1989 revenues for AMTRAK would have been about $9.1 million dollars,
when estimated using this formula.
A 30% fare reduction on all trains would reduce revenues in 1995 to about 11.4 million, a 20% drop in
annual revenues. However if the cost of gasoline were to also increase so that perceived auto operating
costs increased by 25%, then the combined fare reduction and gas cost increase would result in revenues
of about $23 million a year, in 1995.
44
Figure 3. Comparison of Service Improvements
45
7.0
6.0
m
rn
C 5.0
N
O
IL H 4.0
rn =
= o
o v 3.0
a
m
0 2.0
Q 1.0
Es
Sensitivity Analysis
1985 1990 , 1995
No Action M +9AQStop So —30% Fare @B +25% Gas I
Figure 4. Sensitivity Analysis
�l
AM PEAK PERIOD STATION ACTIVITY
1995 - 9 NEW TRAINS, EXIST. FARES
1400
1200
1000
En
0 800
z
w
600
a
CL
200
3
LA 8P FUL ANA SA TUS IRV MV SJC SC OCE SD
L142,10
w -nm' CM I
Figure 5. AM Peak Period Station Activity
47
TABLE 25
STATION BY STATION PATRONAGE FORECASTS
FOR 1995
ALT #0. ADD 1 TRAIN, KEEP EXISTING FARES
STATION
LOS ANGELES
BUENA PARK
F-ULLERTON
ANAHEIM
SANTA ANA
TUSTIN
IRVINE
MISS. VIEJO
SAN JUAN C.
S. CLEMENTE
OCEANSIDE
SAN DIEGO
TOTAL
TOTAL
BOARDING PASSENGERS
-----------------------------------------
AM PEAK
WEEKDAY
ANNUAL
------------
-----=------
202
------------
1640
583,595
0
0
0
496
982
349,350
70
265
94,272
116
547
194,595
0
1 0
0
125
283
100,576
0
0
0
263
443
157,699
0
12
4,400
227
632
224,820
268
1149
408,830
--------
1767
--------
5951
--------
91118,137
ALT. #1. ADD 9 TRAINS, KEEP EXISTING FARES
STATION
LOS ANGELES
BUENA PARK
FULLERTON
ANAHEIM
SANTA ANA
TUSTIN
IRVINE
MISS. VIEJO
SAN JUAN C.
S. CLEMENTE
OCEANSIDE
SAN DIEGO ,�..
TOTAL
TOTAL
BOARDING PASSENGERS
-----------------------------------------
AM PEAK
WEEKDAY
ANNUAL
------------
------------
143
------------
2040
726,100
298
560
199,302
356
776
276,172
60
276
98,093
240
910
323,987
107
380
135,114
143
395
140,721
175
343
122,091
220
376
133,884
66
124
44,105
371
914
325,403
268
1149
408,830
-------
2447
8243
2,933,803
EK
TABLE 25 (continued)
STATION BY STATION PATRONAGE FORECASTS
FOR 1995
ALT #2. 9 NEW TRAINS, ALL TRAINS ALL STOPS, EXIST FARES
TOTAL BOARDING PASSENGERS
------------------------------------
STATION AM PEAK WEEKDAY ANNUAL
LOS ANGELES
121
2049
729,109
BUENA PARK
373
695
247,484
FULLERTON
336
767
272,940
ANAHEIM
58
272
96,736
SANTA ANA
279
1020
363,155
TUSTIN
130
480
170,789
IRVINE
145
421
149,960
MISS. VIEJO
198
398
141,582
SAN JUAN C.
200
345
122,786
S. CLEMENTE
73
137
48,746
OCEANSIDE
412
1008
358,919
SAN DIEGO
268
--------
1149
--------
408,830
--------
TOTAL
2595
8741
31111,037
ALT. #3.9 NEW TRAINS, ALL TRAINS ALL STOPS, FARES -30%
TOTAL BOARDING PASSENGERS
------------------------------------
STATION AM PEAK WEEKDAY ANNUAL
LOS ANGELES
140
2360
840,071
BUENA PARK
398
744
264,698
FULLERTON
366
838
298,405
ANAHEIM
61
290
103,175
SANTA ANA
299
1103
392,381
TUSTIN
144
524
186,388
IRVINE
164
465
165,604
MISS. VIEJO
227
452
160,923
SAN JUAN C.
230
396
140,971
S. CLEMENTE
86
161
57,294
OCEANSIDE
487
1183
421,145
SAN DIEGO
268
1149
408,830
TOTAL
2870
9665
31439,885
Note: The spreadsheet program used to generate and display the data in this table shows all the digits
down to the individual trip level; however, the level of accuracy of the forecasts on which the data in this
table is based are expected to be accurate to only the first 2 to 3 significant digits.
49
TABLE 26
ORANGE COUNTY COMMUTER RAIL STUDY
1995 REVENUE ANALYSIS
50
ADDING
ADDING
9 TRAINS
EXISTING FARES &
NO CHANGE
ADDING
ADDING
WITH
EXISTING GASOLINE COSTS
------------------------
TO SERVICE
----------
ONE TRAIN
--------------------
9 TRAINS
ALL STOPS
----------
ANNUAL PASSENGERS:
2.00
2.12
2.93
3.11
(millions)
ANNUAL PASSENGER -MILES:
63.34
67.15
84.28
85.52
(millions)
ANNUAL REVENUE:
$10.24
$10.86
$13.98
$14.37
(millions of 1989 dollars)
PERCENT INCREASE
0.0%
6.0%
36.5%
40.3%
(over No Change)
50
ADDING
9 TRAINS
30% FARE REDUCTION WITH
NO CHANGE
ADDING
ADDING
WITH
EXISTING GASOLINE COSTS
------------------------
TO SERVICE
----------
ONE TRAIN
----------
9 TRAINS
---- - -----
ALL STOPS
----------
ANNUAL PASSENGERS:
2.21
2.34
3.24
3.44
(mitlions)
ANNUAL PASSENGER -MILES:
72.05
76.38
95.87
97.28
(millions)
ANNUAL REVENUE:
58.10
$8.58
$11.05
511.35
(millions of 1989 dollars)
50
ADDING
9 TRAINS
30% FARE REDUCTION WITH
NO CHANGE
ADDING
ADDING
WITH
25% INCREASE IN GAS COSTS
----- - ----- - ------- - ----
TO SERVICE
----------
ONE TRAIN
----------
9 TRAINS
- ---------
ALL STOPS
----------
ANNUAL PASSENGERS:
4.46
4.73
6.54
6.94
(millions)
ANNUAL PASSENGER -MILES:
145.36
154.11
193.42
196.27
(millions)
ANNUAL REVENUE:
$16.33
$17.32
522.29
$22.90
(millions of 1989 dollars)
50
CHAPTER 8
REFERENCES
1. Caltrans District 7, South Orange County to Los Angeles Commuter Rail Report, Los Angeles,
CA, April 1982.
2. Sterling Sorenson, David Brewer, The LARTS Transportation Model Description & Assumptions,
j Technical Report Series tr/2, Southern California Association of Governments, Los Angeles, CA,
1974.
3. American High Speed Rail Corp. & Arthur D. Little, Inc., Summary Market Report of a High
Speed Rail Service Between Los Angeles and San Diego - Ridership and Revenue Forecast,
March 1983.
4. Caltrans District 7 & Southern California Association of Governments, Santa Ana Transportation
Corridor Commuter Rail Element, Los Angeles, CA, October 1984.
5. Wilbur Smith Assoc., Morrison-Knudsen, Arthur Bauer Assoc.; Los Angeles - San Diego
(LOSSAN) State Rail Corridor Study, Final Report, June 1987.
b. Schimpeler Corradino Assoc., Compendium of Technical Memoranda, Transportation Planning
and Modelling Services , Southern California Regional Transit Distnct,,Los Angeles, CA, March
1984.
7. Mr. Murray Goldman, Senior Planner, Southern California Association of Governments.
8. Mr. Murray Goldman, Senior Planner, SCAG, Letter dated April 25, 1990.
9. Sheila Henry, Roberta Valdez, Analysis of Parking Charges and Costs per Employee by Travel
Analysis Areas in Orange County, Orange County Transit District, Garden Grove, CA, July 1989.
10. Investigator McCoy, City of Los Angeles, Department of Transportation.
51
Recommendationslor
New
Stations
ORANGE GoUNTY COMMUTER RAS - SERVICE
STATION DISTANCES
LOS ANGELES
9.5 MILES
COMMERCE
7.4 MILES
NORWALK
4.5 MILES
BUENA PARK
4.4 MILES
'160.6
FULLERTON
MP1 65.0 5.5 MILES
MPl 70.5 ANAHEIM
2.2 MILES
im3L/85470/2529
MP172.7 ORANGE
2.5 MILES
MPl 75.2 SANTA ANA
4.8 MILES
(D EXISTING STATION
0 PROPOSED STATION
MP180.0 TUSTINMORTH IRVINE
n5 MILES
MP185.0 IRVINE SPECTRUM
7.0 MILES
MP192.0 MISSION VIEJO/LAGUNA NIGUEL
0 5.3 MILES
MP1 97.0 SAN JUAN CAPISTRANO
" 7.6 MILES
MP204.8 SAN CLEMENTE
21.6 MILES
OCEANSIDE
MP226.4
T ---
ORANGE COUNTY COMMUTER RAIL
RECOMMENDATIONS FOR NEW STATIONS
4
BUENA PARK
itSite A: Dale Avenue at railroad near Malvern Street
11 Site B: Beach Boulevard at railroad
The two sites identified by the City of Buena Park as possible commuter stations are each
capable of meeting the requirements of an effective commuter station. Both sites are
currently vacant and therefore the cost and amount of disruption to the area can be kept
to a minimum. Site A, the Dale Avenue site, is located on Orange County Flood Control
District land. Therefore that agency's agreement would be required before the station
could be developed. In addition, the Dale Street site appears to be located in a flood
plain. Therefore a hydrologic study would need to be performed before this site could
be recommended.
The Beach Boulevard site is considered by the project team as the most promising site
for a commuter station in Buena Park. The site's location on Beach Boulevard, its central
location, the number of employers nearby and its greater distance from the Fullerton
station are all reasons for its selection as the preferred site. The project team
recommends that the Beach Boulevard site be considered as the primary site for
development, with the Dale Avenue site to be investigated further as an alternative site.
L
ORANGE
Site: West Chaoman Avenue at railroad
MR The project team recommends that the Orange site be developed as a commuter station
in conjunction with the proposed Riverside to Irvine service. A basic station at this site
could be developed with little difficulty. The use of a vacant parcel across the tracks from
the site for parking will require some kind of pedestrian crossing. A pedestrian circulation
plan using fencing between the tracks and the sidewalk grade crossing can be
considered. -
NORTH IRVINE/TUSTIN
Site A: Bounded by Jamboree, Edinger and railroad
Site B: Harvard Avenue and railroad, Southwest quadrant
Site C: Harvard Avenue and railroad, Northwest quadrant
• Site D: Harvard Avenue and railroad, Southeast quadrant
q- ORANGE COUNTY COMMUTER RAIL
RECOMMENDATIONS FOR NEW STATIONS
BUENA PARK
Site A: Dale Avenue at railroad near Malvern Street
Site B: Beach Boulevard at railroad
The two sites identified by the City of Buena Park as possible commuter stations are each
capable of meeting the requirements of an effective commuter station. Both sites are
currently vacant and therefore the cost and amount of disruption to the area can be kept
to a minimum. Site A, the Dale Avenue site, is located on Orange County Flood Control
District land. Therefore that agency's agreement would be required before the station
could be developed. In addition, the Dale Street site appears to be located in a flood
plain. Therefore a hydrologic study would need to be performed before this site could
be recommended.
The Beach Boulevard site is considered by the project team as the most promising site
for a commuter station in Buena Park. The site's location on Beach Boulevard, its central
location, the number of employers nearby and its greater distance from the Fullerton
station are all reasons for its selection as the preferred site. The project team
recommends that the Beach Boulevard site be considered as the primary site for
development, with the Dale Avenue site to be investigated further as an alternative site.
ORANGE
Site: West Chapman Avenue at railroad
�51111 The project team recommends that the Orange site be developed as a commuter station
in conjunction with the proposed Riverside to Irvine service. A basic station at this site
could be developed with little difficulty. The use of a vacant parcel across the tracks from
the site for parking will require some kind of pedestrian crossing. A pedestrian circulation
plan using fencing between the tracks and the sidewalk grade crossing can be
considered.
NORTH IRVINE/TUSTIN
Site A: Bounded by Jamboree, Edinger and railroad
Site B: Harvard Avenue and railroad, Southwest quadrant
Site C: Harvard Avenue and railroad, Northwest quadrant
Site D: Harvard Avenue and railroad, Southeast quadrant
The second ranked site is Site C. This site is sufficient from an access point of view,
although, its residential neighborhood location and intended land uses will limit the
amount of development as a transportation -oriented facility.
Site A is ranked third because of the need to relocate several businesses currently
operating on the site. The site is outstanding for access and could become an excellent
regional station location as part of a major land use reorganization contingent on toll road
construction.
The least desirable location is Site D. This site is too small to act as an effective
commuter station. The lack of parking would limit ridership on the commuter service.
Since the site is also located in a primarily residential area, joint development
i, opportunities would be limited.
a SAN CLEMENTE
Current Station: Municipal Pier
New Site: Avenida Estacion near EI Camino Real and Avenida Pico
The current San Clemente stop at the Municipal Pier is unsuitable for commuter rail
purposes in terms of operations, community context and expansion of services, especially
parking opportunities. Its distance from the 1-5 Freeway would further discourage rail use
due to unattractive access times. It is not recommended as a commuter rail facility.
A restored station at the site of the original San Clemente station near North Beach offers
the best opportunity to serve commuter rail needs. The site has the best access to the
1-5 Freeway and to the growing communities along Avenida Pico. Even then, however,
it will require considerable care to develop a station that responds to the environmental
and community context of the beachfront. The close consultation between OCTC and
the City of San Clemente will continue to be essential as commuter rail service develops
and as the City reviews its land use goals.
Buena Park Station Locations
r=—•
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Orange Station Location
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a
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Mission Viejo/Laguna Niguel Station Locations
Old
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San Clemente Station Locations
DRAFT OPERATING PLAN
While "New Start" commuter rail development work is currently underway on a number of
rail corridors in the Southern California region, rail passenger service on the Los Angeles
to San Diego Corridor (LOSSAN), over which the proposed Orange County Transportation
Commission (OCTC) service will operate, is much further along in this process than any
of these other planned -services. This is true for two main reasons:
1. Service between many Orange County locations and Los Angeles/San Diego
already exists. The -Amtrak "San Diegan" trains traverse the entire 129 mile rail
corridor on a 7 -day -a -week basis with 16 daily trips (8 in each direction), offering
approximately bi-hourly service.
While these trains are technically designated as "intercity" runs, they serve six of
the proposed ten Orange County stations discussed in Task 4 and offer two
arrivals in Los Angeles by 9:05 A.M. as well as two departures during the
traditional evening commutation hours, i.e. 4-7 p.m.).
2. Due to the initiative of OCTC, an Orange County commuter train running between
San Juan Capistrano and Los Angeles Union Passenger Terminal (LAUPT) has
been in operation for several months and is currently experiencing over 375 daily
trips by Orange County commuters. This round trip, also operated by Amtrak,
using an Amtrak locomotive and Amfleet control car in conjunction with Caltrain
gallery cars, provides a third daily arrival in Los Angeles before 9:05 A.M. and a
third daily departure back to Orange County between 4 and 7 P.M., on a Monday -
Friday -only basis.
An additional feature of the Orange County train is the availability of monthly
tickets, a popular and essential aspect of any rail commutation service.
The combined schedules for the San Diegan and Orange County services are depicted
as Basis 0.
Given the unique nature of the LOSSAN corridor and the presence of well -patronized rail
passenger services, the opportunity exists for OCTC to implement a truly convenient
comprehensive level of service for its patrons with less initial capital investment than
would otherwise be the case.
It is against this backdrop of existing services that the OCTC action plan for commuter
rail service development must proceed. Accordingly, a number of possible service
scenarios have been devised. They are discussed below.
C1 023
4 BASIS 0
TIMETABLE FOR ORANGE COUNTY COMMUTER RAIL SERVICE
Current Amtrak Service with OCTC Commuter Train
M STATION SOUTHBOUND
IL STATION NORTHBOUND
570
572
774
576
578
580
582
584
586
Los Angeles
06:20
08:00
10:50
12:45
14:45
16:45
17:45
18:20
21:05
(Commerce)
15:57
(Norwalk)
06:00
06:40
07:40
11:11
13:06
16:08
18:07
20:07
22:05
Buena Park
Fullerton
06:54
08:34
11:24
13:19
15:19
17:19
18:19
18:54
21:39
Anaheim
07:04
08:44
11:34
13:29
15:29
17:29
18:29
19:04
21:49
Orange
06:22
07:02
08:02
11:33
13:28
16:31
18:29
20:29
22:27
Santa Ana
07:13
08:53
11:44
13:38
15:38
17:38
18:39
19:13
21:58
Tustin/Nlrvine
06:32
07:10
08:10
11:41
13:36
16:39
18:39
20:37
22:35
Irvine Spectrum
07:16
07:18
08:20
11:51
13:47
17:41
18:43
20:47
22:44
Mission Vjo LN
S Juan Cap
07:32
09:14
12:05
13:58
15:59
17:57
18:57
19:33
22:17
San Clemente
07:45
09:28
Oceanside
08:06
09:49
12:41
14:30
16:31
18:28
19:35
20:03
22:48
IL STATION NORTHBOUND
FLUOR DANIEL 1--5—
569
571
573
577
579
581
783
585
587
Oceanside
06:11
0711
10:41
12:36
15:36
17:36
19:36
21:36
San Clemente
15:57
S Juan Cap
06:00
06:40
07:40
11:11
13:06
16:08
18:07
20:07
22:05
Mission Vjo LN
Irvine Spectrum
06:15
07:56
20:23
Tustin/Nlrvine
Santa Ana
06:22
07:02
08:02
11:33
13:28
16:31
18:29
20:29
22:27
Orange
Anaheim
06:32
07:10
08:10
11:41
13:36
16:39
18:39
20:37
22:35
Fullerton
06:42
07:18
08:20
11:51
13:47
16:50
18:48
20:47
22:44
Buena Park
(Norwalk)
(Commerce)
Los Angeles
07.25
07:58
09:05
12:37
14:30
17:35
19:35
21:30
23:25
FLUOR DANIEL 1--5—
SCENARIO I - OCTC "STAND ALONE" SERVICE
PEAK PERIOD, MONDAY - FRIDAY
Scenario 1 presents the most basic level of service that could be offered. This service
also parallels the service currently being developed for San Diego County by the North
County Transit District (NCTD) from Oceanside into San Diego. The Orange County
version would provide 4 peak period inbound A.M. trips to Los Angeles with
corresponding P.M. returns to Orange County and Oceanside.
This scenario includes the currently operating OCTC commuter train (designated as Train
#3 and Train # 12), but does not provide any service in a "reverse peak" direction (LA
to OC) nor any "shoulder peak" (midday or evening service)
In its favor, this peak only scenario can be implemented without major capital
expenditures, such as for additional doubletracking, beyond the physical plant that exists
today. While the current track configuration may require some fine tuning of the Scenario
I schedule to maneuver train "meets" (opposing train passing one another) onto double
track segments of the railroad, such schedule adjustments appear to be minor.
What Scenario I does require, however, is the acquisition, through purchase or lease, of
four trainsets (a locomotive and 5 double deck cars per set) needed to provide the four
round trip peak period service. It is suggested Orange County acquire uniform, 5 -car
trainsets for several reasons:
- If all trains are the same length, any trainset can be utilized to fill any schedule
slot, whatever the ridership. This creates maximum operating flexibility.
The experience of other services has shown that initially empty seats can generate
ridership increases.
The experience of many services (e.g. Boston, New York, Chicago, Florida) has
been that ridership growth can occur very quickly, whereas lead times for
additional equipment can be as much as two years.
Under Scenario 1, this equipment, and the respective crews to operate them, would be
idle during midday hours, due to the lack of service. Also this option forces passengers
to use AMTRAK for any non -peak hour travel requirements and would be responsible for
an additional fare at the -higher AMTRAK tariff levels. AMTRAK trains would also not stop
at several of the Orange County stations.
A Scenario I schedule is shown on the next page.
11
C1 023
A
4
1
F1
■
■
I
IL
y
L7
4
y
9
r
SCENARIO I
TIMETABLE FOR ORANGE COUNTY COMMUTER RAIL SERVICE
OCTC "Stand Alone" Peak Period Service
STATION
Los Angeles
(Commerce)
(Norwalk)
Buena Park
Fullerton
Anaheim
Orange
Santa Ana
Tustin/N Irvine
Irvine Spectrum
Mission Vjo LN
S Juan Cap
San Clemente
Oceanside
STATION
SOUTHBOUND
..::8 ....:. ;'
10
(3)
5
16:00 _-
17:20
16:30 : `
- 17.50
:....i 6:37
17:57..<`
16 <..:;18:05
...............................
.. .
16:508.10
:.:
16:55:
18.15
....;17. < .:.18:22
19:47
17.10
:19 55
17.20 .
18:40
17.29
.:18:49
i:41
19.01..
8'Og.....
.
X12)
7 4
(3)
5
17:45
18:45
18:15
.1915.:
18:22
:19:22
18:30
19:30
18:35
19.35
18:4019.40
S Juan Cap
18:47
19:47
18:55
:19 55
19:05
20:05'`
19:14
06 23'
19:26
':20.26
19:53
..:::::20.`53,..:
NORTHBOUND
FLUOR DANIEL 09/15/90
y:
(3)
5
>7
Oceanside
-:04:55 <
05:20
05:40 <
06:30
San Clemente
'
05:42
06 02
<06.52
S Juan Cap
......05.17
05 29`
05:54
06 14<
07:04
Mission Vjo LN
05 .38
06:03
06 23'
07:13::
Irvine Spectrum
05. 48 `
06:13
06.33<
.07:23
Tustin/Nlrvine
.0 5.56
06:21
06.41
07:31'
Santa Ana
06:03 ;
06:28
06:48
07:38'
Orange
06:08
06:33
Z6:'63
:07:43
Anaheim
06:13
06:38
06:58
07:48
Fullerton
06:21
06:46
07:06
<07:56
Buena Park
06:28
06:53
07:13
08:03
(Norwalk)
(Commerce)
Los Angeles
:07:03
07:28
07:48
08:38
FLUOR DANIEL 09/15/90
SCENARIO 11
OCTC STAND ALONE SERVICE, EXPANDED TO REVERSE PEAK, MIDDAY AND
EVENING
Scenario II affords an expanded level of service and convenience for Orange County
commuters by providing minimal levels of reverse -peak and off-peak service. These non -
peak services, often referred to as "safety valve" services, have proven very popular in
both new and established commuter rail corridors around the country for two reasons:
1. They generate non -work trips for a variety of purposes.
2. They provide a level of security and comfort to peak -period users who may need
off-peak service, due to the demands of their jobs, family or other personal
requirements.
Nine daily round trips would now be provided using the same amount of equipment as
in Scenario I. However this scenario still leaves a gap between 10:00 AM and 4:00 PM.
Additional service to fill the midday gap could be scheduled, but might be difficult to
justify, given the operation of three southbound AMTRAK trains during that period.
Commuters would have to use these trains and pay Amtrak fares.
Scenario 11 will require at least two additional train crews, with two or three employees per
crew, as will be discussed below) plus the completion of the majority of the capital
program outlined in the Los Angeles - San Diego (LOSSAN) State Rail Corridor Study.
Doubletracking projects between Fullerton and Irvine (Mileposts 165 -186) and between
Serra and San Juan. Capistrano (Mileposts 192.7 - 199) are needed to support this
scenario. Doubletracking between Fullerton and Santa Ana, recently added to the
LOSSAN capital projects list as a result of this project, is designated as a capital cost for
beginning commuter services in Scenarios II and III. Without this doubletracking program,
the reverse -peak and midday trains will be impossible to operate on a consistently reliable
basis.
IA Scenario II schedule is shown on the next page.
1
LI
1
C1023
4
SCENARIO 11
TIMETABLE FOR ORANGE COUNTY COMMUTER RAIL SERVICE
Expanded OCTC "Stand Alone" Service
STATION
SOUTHBOUND
I
STATION
NORTHBOUND
2
4
6
8
10
(12)
14
;`16
18
04;55 ::
05:20
-06:30
:09.40
1 Z •40 _
3.40 3 8.15
20.00
San Clemente057
' .
Los Angeles
07:30
fl9:00
i 0:00
:16:00
17:20
17:45
18 45
20 30
23:15 .
(Commerce)
07:04 10:14.
::12:14.1....
'I414
9 $:490:34
Mission V W
05:38:
06:03
(Norwalk)
;07:13
10:23
-12.23:
Irvine Spectrum
05:48 <
06:13
i.
:06 33
Buena Park
08:00
09:30
:10:30
:16:30.
17:50
18:15
79 15
21:00
23:45
Fullerton
08:07
09:37
0:37.:
;16:37
17:57
18:22.
1922.
21:07
23:52::
Anaheim
08:15.
: 09:45
10:45
; X16:45
18:05
18:30
:19:30 `
21!15
00:00 .
Orange
08:20
X9:50
:10:50
16:50
18:10
18:35
19 35
21420
fl0:05
Santa Ana
08:25
09:55
10:55
:16:55
18:15
18:40
19 40 ;'
-;,2125
::00:.10
TustiNNirvinb
08:32
:10:02
x7:02
i7:02
: <18:22
18:47
19:47 .:...:21:32
06:53
00:.7
Irvine Spectrum
08.40
10 7 0
0..,:.:.:.
11 •y
17 t0
'18:30
18:55
9 55
21:40 > ::
00:25 <:
Mission Vjo W
X8:50
4. '1020
. i1:20(T20
`a 8:40
19:05
20.05
21:50
00:35
S Juan Cap
08;59
10.29
1;29
9 7:29
18.49
19:14
ZO 141:59
07:03
:00:44
San Clemente
09:11
10.41::.:11:41
13:48
17:41
19:01
19:26
20 26_ :;
22:7 7 :>
, :00.56
Oceanside
09:38
11:0$
12:08
.18.08
19:28
19:53
20.5,3
22;38
01:23 '
I
STATION
NORTHBOUND
FLUOR DANIEL 4
7 :
1117
Oceanside
04;55 ::
05:20
-06:30
:09.40
1 Z •40 _
3.40 3 8.15
20.00
San Clemente057
' .
05:42
fl6 02
- .:06:52
10:02
::12.02 .:.::1
X1:0 8:37
X0:22
S Juan Cap
05:29
05:54
X6:14
07:04 10:14.
::12:14.1....
'I414
9 $:490:34
Mission V W
05:38:
06:03
:06 23
;07:13
10:23
-12.23:
Irvine Spectrum
05:48 <
06:13
i.
:06 33
-0 7;23
1033:
12.33:
'f x•33
9'080
53
Tustin/Nlrvine
05:56.:
06:21
°'06.4)
:07:31
10.41
2.41-
41
; S
21 Oa
Santa Ana
06:03 <
06:28
-648
;07:38
x0:48
12 48
'Id 48
.9:y
y9'23
21;08
Orange
Ofi:08 :
06:33
: 06:53
:07:43
10:53:
1253
a 4.53
1.9:28
21:13
Anaheim
:06:13:
06:38
:06.58
:07:48
10:58`
1258`:
14.58:
: 9:33
Fullerton
06:21
06:46
;:07:06
:fl7.Z&:;11:06
:1306:
15.06'1.9:41
21:26 `
Buena Park
06:28 <
06:53
; O7y 3
:8:0313
13 '
1 v 18
19.48
21:33,;
(Norwalk)
(Commerce)
Los Angeles
07:03
07:28
07.48
08:38
'11:48
13:48
15 48 :...:20:23
.:
22:08
FLUOR DANIEL 4
SCENARIO 111
PARTIAL INTEGRATION OF OCTC AND AMTRAK SERVICE (recommended option)
By taking the service outlined in Scenario II and integrating current AMTRAK'service into
the OCTC service pattern, the convenience and flexibility of 20-30 minute peak period and
60 minute off-peak availability is created. This means commuters could use Orange
County trains as well as Amtrak trains at OCTC service prices.
With no additional equipment and crew requirements beyond Scenario Il, OCTC's
patrons would have the ability, under this scenario to choose among six arrivals ty � g before
9:05 A.M. and six departures during the evening peak, with a high level of accompanying
off-peak service.
Under such a proposed arrangement, AMTRAK trains would only be stopping at those
stations currently served by AMTRAK trains. But this encompasses 7 of the 11 stations
that will be served by the OCTC service outside of Los Angeles County.
Fare and ticketing arrangements with AMTRAK for such a service integration could
iinvolve:
1. A continuation of the current "step-up" provisions for the existing Orange County
train.
- 2. An agreed upon level of reimbursement by Orange County to AMTRAK for each
verified rider carried, regardless of the type of ticket.
3. Negotiated general compensation to AMTRAK in the form of cash, provision of
equipment, etc. for AMTRAK's service to OCTC riders.
4. Any other equitable arrangement agreed to by the parties.
Scenario III can be improved with some alterations to existing AMTRAK service. An
examples include moving Train #571 to arrive at 8:10 A.M. in Los Angeles rather than
7:58 A.M. Early discussions with AMTRAK officials on this subject have indicated a
willingness to work with OCTC to devise an overall schedule aimed at maximizing
convenience and ridership levels for both services.
A Scenario III schedule is shown on the next page.
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ORANr'" COUNTY COMMUTEF 'SAIL
RECC,iaiMENDED SERVICE GORLS
Morning and Evening Peak
Every 20 Minutes
Midday, Evening and Reverse Commute
Every 60 Minutes
2DIBS470/2854 - 1 -
ORAS" COUNTY COMMUTE' `SAIL
RECUMMENDED OCTC SERVICE
A.M. Peak
6
Trains
Mid -Day
3
Trains
P.M. Peak
6
Trains
Evening
3
Trains
18 Daily Trains
Maximum Joint Service with AMTRAK 34 Trains
ORAVP "E COUNTY COMMUTE RAIL
EQUIPMENT NEEDS
4 -Trainsets & Spares
6 Locomotives
6 Control Cars
18 Trailer Cars
21)/B5470/2854 - 2 -
Capital - Investments
CAPITAL INVESTMENTS
The recommended service outlined in Scenario III requires an capital investments of about
bout
$72.4 million, as shown on the next page. Some brief explanatory notes are given here.
EQUIPMENT
Four train sets are required to operate the commuter rail service. A trainset consists of
a diesel locomotive and 5 coaches, laid out for "push-pull" operation. This means that
the locomotive will pull the train normally on the first half of a round trip. On the return
trip, the train is not turned around, but rather run "backwards," with the locomotive
pushing from the rear. The end coach of any train must therefore contain a control
station for the engineer to run the train when operating in the "push" mode.
The recommended coach design for Orange County and Southern California in general
is a bi-level or double deck car, each of which can seat up to 160 persons. Using these
high-capacity coaches provides for future growth in ridership without the need to expand
station platform lengths in the near future.
To ensure reliable service, it is necessary to have spare locomotives, control coaches and
regular coaches available to substitute for equipment that is out of service for schedules
inspections or for repairs. The Action Plan therefore recommends acquiring 6
locomotives (4 for daily service, 2 spares), 18 regular coaches (16 for daily service, 2
spares) and 6 control coaches (4 for daily service, 2 spares). Prices reflect current
ranges for similar equipment in commuter service around the United States. Combining
orders with other agencies to make larger production runs can lead to significant savings
per unit.
MAINTENANCE FACILITIES
While building any maintenance facilities in Orange County is not recommended, since
any site would be too far from the terminals in Oceanside and Los Angeles, maintenance
functions will need to be carried out on Orange County equipment. The Action Plan
recommends that Orange County arrange with Los Angeles County (at Union Station)
and/or with San Diego County (at Fallbrook Yard, near Oceanside) to combine
maintenance functions. The scale economies thus generated would be beneficial to all
parties. The Orange County contribution could be in fees for services, but a capital
contingency for contributing to the construction of the Los Angeles or San Diego facilities,
if so negotiated, is also given in the chart.
TRACK IMPROVEMENTS
The Action Plan assumes the timely construction of double track and sidings between
Santa Ana and Irvine and between Mission Viejo and Dana Point, as programmed by the
LOSSAN Rail Corridor Agency. Further doubletracking between Fullerton and Santa Ana
is required for reliable operation of Scenario lll. This is especially true for reverse
commuting movements, that is, trains leaving Los Angeles in the morning against peak
direction traffic and corresponding trains leaving Oceanside in the evening peak.
STATIONS
The provision of the basic requirements for efficient operation of a station, including
platforms, shelters, ticket machines, public address system, and other installations, plus
parking, could cost in the range of $600,000 to $1,000,000, according to experience on
comparable new rails stems in other arts of the United States. These estimates are
P Y P
exclusive of land acquisition. New stricter interpretations of handicapped access
requirements, when formulated, may add some cost to these estimates. Further design
elaborations to satisfy local concerns would be the responsibility of the communities
involved.
V
ORANGE OUNTY COMMUI .R RAIL
CAPITAL COSTS'
• Equipment $44.4 Million
• Maintenance Facility Contingency $ 3.0 Million
• Double Track (Fullerton to Santa Ana) $20.0 Million
• 5 New Stations (@ $0.6 - 1.0 Million Each) $ 5.0 Million
$72.4 Million
i
i *Supports 9 Weekday Round Trips
i
r
Operating Expenses
OPERATING EXPENSES
The following page describes the general categories of operating expenditures required
to support Scenario III, which consists of 9 Orange County round trips. Cost categories
are based on comparable functions on other similar commuter rail operations in the
United States.
The 9 round trips generate about 396,000 yearly train miles (YTM), based on 250 service
days per year.
Five train and engine crews would be required to staff the service, with one extra person
of each work category as reserve. A three person crew would consist of the following:
Engineer $56,000 annually
Conductor $44,000
Asst. Conductor $38,000
These salaries include a 40% fringe benefit calculation.
Ticketing is assumed to be the Proof of Payment (POP) system, recognized locally from
its success on the San Diego trolley. Riders are required to possess valid tickets when
asked by a checker (who occasionally may be an Assistant Conductor), but generally this
would only occur on a spot check basis.
These expenses accrue on the basis of train -miles operated, with no regard to
arrangements for apportioning them to specific sources of funds. A great number of
ownership and operating arrangements could be considered for cost sharing, cost
reimbursement, or other cost offsets among many parties. Such deliberations will be a
major part of regional organization of commuter rail services.
These expenses areexpressed as gross amounts, with no consideration for revenues
from ticket sales. All revenues will reduce the amount of net operating costs. Any
��•rments for services by other operators (such as payments for passage on AMTRAK
ns) would be considered offsets to revenue.
ORAL` _,c COUNTY COMMUTEt , RAIL
ESTIMATED ANNUAL OPERATING EXPENSES*
COST CATEGORY
ORANGE COUNTY
TRAIN COSTS
Train and Engine Crewing $ 830,000
Fuel ($1.00/Gal) 190009000
Equipment Maintenance 29065,000
Physical Plant Maintenance 3,1309000
Ticketing/Revenue/POP 155,000
Management/Administration 195259000
$ 8,705,000
Based on Nine Round Trips Per Day
All Costs in 1990 Dollars
Orange County Trains Only
* Excludes Eventual AMTRAK Service Payments
3UB547o ass
- ORGANIZATION AND MANAGEMENT
• The Action Plan assumes that Orange County Commuter Rail service will develop in a
regional context with close cooperation among all counties providing rail services. It is
reasonable that this cooperation address the common needs of organization and
-� management, so that all citizens of the Southern California region can benefit from a
unified rail network and all providing counties can enjoy the efficiencies that come from
scale economies and shared facilities. OCTC should be a strong partner in this service
development.
The Action Plan notes the characteristics of good management of commuter rail services
and proposes a three -tiered management and oversight structure, as outlined below.
CHARACTERISTICS
To arrive at the most appropriate and responsive institutional arrangements and
management structure for both the implementation and long-term operation of the OCTC
commuter rail service, a number of critical concerns must be addressed. These include:
Stability of the Organization. A policy-making agency which will oversee
commuter rail development and subsequent operation in Orange County, as well
as the entire Southern California region, must be stable enough in its makeup and
its functioning to manage the:
o Formulation of both long-term capital plans (5 and 10 year
increments) and long-term demand forecasting (10 and 25 year
periods).
o Identification of the capital resources necessary to provide an
adequate level of service.
o Attainment of those capital resources to implement the service
changes and improvements.
Participation and Coordination. While there are presently a number of different
commuter rail services under study in the Los Angeles/San Diego Corridor and
Los Angeles/San Bernardino Corridor, it is not only difficult to separate these
services into county segments, it is also undesirable for the shaping of the
ultimate system.
Commuters are not concerned with county lines, but rather with the overall extent
of service, the ease of use, convenience and the level of service quality and
convenience. Furthermore, there are real economies of scale to be enjoyed from
joint purchases of rail rolling stock, ticket machines, and other types of hardware
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for the systems being developed. For these reasons, it is important that all
counties currently developing services participate in the institutional policy-making
agency in an active manner, so that full service coordination is attainable and all
potential cost economies are achieved.
Flexibility. Within this overall structure, individual county needs, such as station
idsiting and design, the type and extent of feeder services, hours of service to be
provided, and so forth, may vary. It is essential, therefore, that a level of flexibility
be provided which allows for individual county development of unique services as
id desired within that county.
Continuity. The agency will need to be recognized as the overall governing body
for the development and operation of commuter rail services in Southern
California. All service issues and future service improvements should be within the
mandate of this organization. All user recognition and contact should be with and
through this agency. The agency to be created, therefore, must possess a long-
term, comprehensive element in its charter that enables the agency to be able to
address fully the transportation needs of the region.
ORGANIZATIONAL FORM
In light of these factors and the diverse nature of commuter rail implementation and
operation, a multi -tiered organizational structure should be carefully considered. Such
an institution could exist on three levels, as described below.
Tier 1. Policy Making and APproval
Whether it is called a commission, an organization or an authority, at this level each
county developing commuter rail service in Southern California would be represented by
a least one and possibly two voting representatives on the policy-making board. These
representatives, who may be from either the public or private sector, would be appointed
through the internal process of each county, with equivalent terms of service for the
representatives of each of the counties.
Since it is the counties that will be ultimately responsible for service levels and service
subsidies, it is appropriate that control over the nature and extent of service reside with
e counties as represented on this policy-making board. It will be the responsibility of
e Board to assure that:
1034
o Capital planning is complete and consistent with foreseen levels of service.
o Capital resources are identified and the necessary funding mechanisms are
in place to assure the existence of those resources when necessary.
o Ridership and demand forecasting is current and complete for an extended
period, to allow for long-term service development and the adequacy of the
physical plant necessary to support that service.
y
o Individual, unique county service and subsidy requirements are addressed
as they develop.
In addition, it will be the Board's responsibility to coordinate service development for
Southern California regional commuter rail with all other involved public and private
agencies and institutions, both statewide and national. Examples of this coordination
would be ongoing relationships with the California Department of Transportation, the
California Transportation Commission, the Los Angeles - San Diego Rail Corridor Agency,
the Urban Mass Transportation Administration, the Environmental Protection Agency and
so on. To the extent desired by the voting members of the Board, these and other
agencies may be represented on the Board in an ex officio, or voting, status as desired.
Similarly, it will be the responsibility of county representatives to assure the contribution
of their respective counties to service subsidies and complementing services (e.g.
feeder/distributor services, coordination with existing county bus routes, joint marketing
campaigns, etc.).
Finally, to assure the ongoing involvement of board members in the actual conduct of the
commuter rail service being developed and then operated, and to preclude the need for
each Board meeting to be a "re-education process", it is recommended that a series of
technical committees be established to bring Board members and professional staff
together on an ongoing basis to assure full Board involvement in all aspects of service.
Suggested technical committees include Operations, Financial and Marketing. These
committees could be comprised of both voting members from the Board and members
of the professional staff as appropriate to the committee in question. The committee
structure would also provide an opportunity for technical and policy input for cities with
rail stations in their communities, providing a forum for integrating rail service into local
land use and transportation contexts.
Tier 2. Policy Fulfillment and Executive Oversight
The second organizational tier within the overall structure is a professional staff, serving
as the executive arm of the governing board, whose purpose is to carry out the board's
policies and to oversee the development and the operation of the commuter rail service.
The head of this professional staff, an Executive Director or General Manager, should be
selected by the board and have a contract negotiated with that board. Consideration
should be given to a multi-year contract to allow for long term program development, with
appropriate performance reviews built in as safeguards for the governing body.
It would be the Executive Director's responsibility to develop a professional staff as
necessary to manage and to constantly improve the commuter rail service through the
discharge of a variety of functions and responsibilities. These would include:
1. Service Oversight. Whether the service is operated internally by the agency itself
or contracted out, it is the responsibility of the Executive Director and his
management staff to assure, at all times, the highest levels of service quality. This
type of monitoring takes several forms, including:
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the executive department staff so that each area of the daily operation has a specific staff
member managing it on a daily basis. In this fashion, all vital service information is
reported promptly and responded to as necessary in an equally timely fashion.
Staff members in the various technical disciplines relating to the managers responsible
for similar elements of daily operation must possess an appropriate level of technical
expertise and experience to be able to monitor those elements of the operations for which
they are responsible. Their contact with their counterpart within the operating structure
should take the form of direct communications on a several times daily basis.
Tier 3. Operating Mana g eg,•_merrt
Operating management structure forms the third tier of the overall commuter rail
management institution. It is within this management stratum that the safety and overall
quality of daily service is assured, with all service deficiencies, disruptions, and usual
occurrences responded to promptly and thoroughly by management. The management
group will be responsible for:
o Safe train operations.
o Total program of maintaining equipment to assure the maximum performance
in reliability, cleanliness, equipment appearance, and availability for service.
o Maintenance of all aspects of the physical plant and facilities necessary for
desired service levels.
o The daily tracking of performance and cost information and reporting to the
executive staff as thoroughly and completely as possible.
o Involvement in public information and marketing campaigns to the extent
desired by the executive staff.
o Coordination with feeder/distributor services as provided within the respective
counties to assure that the end-to-end transportation system being provided
to the customers is as "seamless" as possible.
I — o Assurances that the conduct of all employees engaged in the provision of
service to the travelling public meets the highest standards of safety,
courtesy, and compliance with all local, state and Federal regulations
governing employees in the rail industry.
o Development and presentation of an annual operating budget and yearly
updates of capital plans.
This three -tiered structure, consisting of policy, executive and operating elements, allows
for the fullest possible development of convenient, safe, customer oriented regional rail
service throughout Southern California.
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Provision of Service Components
THE ACTION PLAN
PROVISION OF SERVICE COMPONENTS
Regional issues predominate in considering how Orange County should acquire the
physical plant, equipment and services to provide commuter rail service. Most of these
decisions will be made in close cooperation with other service providers. Within that
context, the Action Plan lists some options and recommendations below.
PHYSICAL PLANT AND EQUIPMENT
The choices for acquiring right-of-way, track, signals, etc. include purchase, lease or
payment for use. The cost of each of these options goes down progressively, but so
does the control of service quality, reliability and flexibility. A regional approach to
negotiating the purchase of the railroad from Fullerton to San Diego, in conjunction with
other lines in Los Angeles, Riverside and San Bernardino Counties, is underway. The
Action Plan recommends continuing this process, allowing for proper safeguards and
reviews for maximum operating flexibility and opportunity for development of the OCTC
service.
EQUIPMENT
A similar range of alternatives exists for OCTC for acquiring locomotives and equipment.
While a great range of options seems available, key considerations, such as parts
availability, suitability of equipment for commuter service, ready access to more cars
without long production waits, considerably narrows the field. Decisions being made in
the region on these issues are converging on a range of equipment. Orange County can
participate in these decisions and support them. The question of outright purchase or
lease requires economic analysis of life cycle costs and benefits and may be the most
critical decision.
MAINTENANCE FACILITIES
Participation in cost sharing and facility specifications with Los Angeles and San Diego
Counties are the recommended actions for Orange County in this field. Consultations
with these prospective regional partners is ongoing and should be continued.
SERVICE COMPONENTS
The following functional groupings are used to categorize service components:
1. Operations and maintenance, including both maintenance of
equipment and maintenance of way/communications and signals.
Within this functional area we also include train dispatching, since
it is an integral part of the operations process.
2. Station maintenance, which is considered separately because of
the importance both from cost and community involvement
perspectives, to have this function handled by the cities and towns
served by the service.
3. Revenue collection, ticketing and enforcement of the revenue
system, which is also considered separately for a variety of
reasons, prominent among them being the need to develop off-line
and nonrailroad ticket outlets to assure maximum availability and
convenience for prospective ticket purchasers and customers.
4. Securily, which includes the policing of the physical plant, the
trains and the checking of tickets as part of the overall revenue
enforcement system. Again there should be emphasis on
community involvement and participation, (e.g. involve local law
enforcement agencies).
5. Overall management of the system and development of service
enhancement and improvement programs. While in fact all of the
functions listed in 1 through 4 above have a need for line
management, there is also the requirement for overall system
management, day-to-day monitoring of system performance and
the development of far-ranging plans for system and service
enhancement and improvement. Management as defined at this
level corresponds to the middle tier of the management structure
outlined in Task 10, Organization Analysis.
A matrix chart of how these services should be provided within the regional context
follows:
OCTC ACTION PLAN
RECOMMENDED METHOLODOGY FOR ACQUIRING SERVICE COMPONENTS
Function
Internal
External
"Contract Out"
Stand
Stand
Alone
Regional
Alone
Regional
Operations and Maintenance
includes train dispatching,
X
maintenance of equipment,
maintenance of way, structures
and communications and
signals
Station maintenance
X
Ticketing/revenue collection/
X
enforcement
Security
X
Management
X
ORAS E COUNTY COMMUTE RAIL
RECOMMENDATIONS
• Promote Regional Commuter Rail Planning and
Service Coordination
. Begin Station Development with Cities
• Expedite OCTC and LOSSAN Track Improvements
• Negiotiate Equipment Acquision
• Proceed to Implementation Program
10
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