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HomeMy WebLinkAboutCC 4 SCAG GROWTH 01-07-80DATE: TO: FROM: SUBJECT:  CONSENT CALENDAR No. 4 1-7-80 I liter - C om HONORABLE MAYOR AND CITY COUNCIL DAN BLANKENSHIP, CITY ADMINISTRATOR RESOLUTIONS SUPPORTING SCAG GROWTH FORECASTS The Southern California Association of Governments has requested the support of all cities in Orange County of its Growth Forecast in the form of the attachea resolution. This effort is to preclude the State's action in using a much lower State estimate, which would decrease certain grant funds and allocations made to our County. Mike Brotemarkle, the Community Development Director, concurs in the desirability of this action. It will not affect the City directly but it will be beneficial for the region. Attached is some SCAG information on the subject. RECOMMENDED ACTION Adopt attached Resolution No. 80-1 supporting the use of SCAG Population Estimate. Res~eGt fully submitted /D-an 'Blankenship City Administrator DB/hlr Attachments J'OUTHERfl CALIFOR~IIA AJ'J'OCIATIOfl OF GOVERrlmEI1T$ GOO/ouch Commonwec~lt.h flvenue ·Suir. e I000 · Lo/Rngele/· Cc~lifornic~ · 90005 · 213/355~1000 Dear Public Official: We need your help to assure that the State uses the locally developed SCAG-78 Growth Forecast Policy rather than their own forecasts. The State Water Resources Control Board (SWRCB) has stated that they will use the SCAG-78 Forecast as a basis for the funding of wastewater facilities if we obtain resolutions of "concurrence with SCAG-78 from jurisdictions representing 90% of the region's population by January l, 1980". Should we fail to meet this requirement, the State is likely to establish its own forecasts. Our major concerns are that this would seriously erode local governments' control'of growth within this region and could undermine the adopted regional plans for air quality, transportation and particularly water quality (208). In addition, due to language in federal regulations, it may result in the use of forecasts which are considerably lower than SCAG-78 (see Attachment A, Page 4). We believe that as a result of the two year development process of the SCAG-78 Forecast, a good deal of consensus already exists, and we would like to document this fact for the State. Therefore, we urge your jurisdiction to adopt the enclosed sample resolution (Attachment B) indicating concurrence with SCAG-78 for use in regional planning. Due to the time limitations imposed upon us by the SWRCB, we must ask you to act on this resolution by January l, 1980, or sooner if possible. Due to the urgency of this matter we stand ready to assist you 'in any way we can. To provide you with additional information on SCAG-78 and the need for your jurisdiction'$ concurrence, we have enclosed an information package and a summary of the Forecast. If you wish more information on this matter, ~lease contact Jack Green at SCAG. ocal governm~n~ .-. ' .. eveloping B 1 a e, encourage · '' believe that by d an reduce red t P s :.u~nd a, __~_ ~..~nnment, protect th. ~nn~inueO eco~om~ ~= .... r'£_, .~o in Shapln~ ~- ~'--- ~ocal ~overnmen~ '~'~ ' ano ensur: · = 6n this matter. look forward to your cooperation Sincerely, Presid6nt JACK GREEN Government and Public Affairs 600 ~. CommonuJeolth Rve.,.t'u[te IOOO, Lo/Angele/, Co 90005 213/385-1OOO DEVELOPMENT GUIDE JA~iUARY, 1979 "SCAG --78 GROWTH FORECAST POLICY SUMMARY southern california association of .governments .,. GOO South Commonweolth Avenue - Suite I000 o Los Angeles · California - 90005 · 213/385-1000 Dear Public Official and Interested Citizen: This report is an executive summary of the SCAG-78 Growth Forecast Policy, adopted in January 1979. This report was developed pursuant to SCAG Executive Committee direction and replaces SCAG's growth policy forecast adopted in December 1975--SCAG~76 The SCAG-78 Forecasts cover population, housing, employment and land use for 1980, 1985, 1990, 1995 and 2000 by region, county and regional statistical area. The adopted growth forecasts express regional and local growth policies through the use of the explicit numbers to realize a desirable and realistic future state of the SCAG region. The regional implications of the growth forecasted in SCAG-78 are broad and many, impacting public facilities for transportation, schools, sewers, etc.; and impacting the quality of air, water and other natural resources. The implementation of SCAG-78 Growth Forecast Policy is dependent largely upon intergovernmental cooperation. SCAG will continue to coordinate its regional growth forecast policies with local, state and federal governments. Copies of the complete report, SCAG-78 Growth Forecast Policy {January, 1979), are available for viewing at SCAG, every city and county planning department within the region; and at library depositories throughout the region. We are interested in continuing to work with public officials, administrators, planni.ng professionals and interested citizens for improving the overall quality of life within Southern California. Sincerely, Edwin A. Jones Pres i dent EAJ:DM:kkm SCAG GROWTH FORECAST POLICY JANUARY, 1979 DEVELOPMENT GUIDE, Southern California Association of Governments 600 South Commonwealth Avenu.e, Suite 1000, Los Angeles, California 90005 SUMMARY OF THE SCAG-78 GROWTH FORECAST POLICY The SCAG-78 Grov~ch Forecast Policy is prepared as a major new revision in the ongoing Development Guide Program at SCAG. The Development Guide Program has been in operation since 1970 providing a framework for co- ordinating local and regional decisions regarding growth. Approximately every two years since 1972, SCAG has adopted a new growth forecast policy. POPULATION SCAG REGION The SCAG-78 Forecast shows the SCAG region's population growing from 10.5 million in 1976 to 13.6 million in the year 2000. This represents an increase of 3.1 million people or 30%. The forec2sted total is based on assumptions of probable migration and fertility rates and Uoes not repre- sent any limitation of the regional total due to policy consideration. The regional total is close (-115,000 or -1%) to that shown by the State Department of Finance in its baseline forecast (E-150). The regional total represents a summation of county figures that was developed with the planning staffs of each county. SCAG-78 was designed in the context of committee and hearing board recommendations. GROWTH WITHIN THE SCAG REGION The allocation of the regional gro~rch to areas below the regional level (counties, regiona) statistical areas, etc.) was determined by the following factors: utilization of local government forecasts to the maximum extent possible consistent with the SCAG regional policies recent trends known developments and proposals available land access to employment SCAG policies SCAG-78 GENERALIZED POLICIES The generalized policies that particularly influenced the SCAG-78 Forecasts are listed below: Encourage growth on a regional scale to occur in a balanced manner, both: · within and adjacent to existing urban areas, especially those in need of recycling and areas with underutilized infrastructure (i.e., transportation systems, utilities, schools, private investments, etc.); · and in currently unurbanized areas where the pattern of development is c~refully balanced, related to major infrastructure and public facilities, and where environmental impacts are substantially mitigated. Encourage growth on a subregional scale to take place in a concentra- ted, compact form {i.e., at moderate densities and in clusters and centers}. This is intended to promote community identity, avoid environmental degradation, and facilitate transit use, while avoiding over-dependence on very high densities and avoid excessive recycle rates. Improve the balance of commercial and industrial development and overall employment growth with the population levels and growth of each subregion. This policy is intended to provide the opportunity for people to live and work in the same community in order to reduce the overall number and length of trips and to promote social and economic vitality within each subregion, while also retaining the economic basis of the older urban areas and forestalling the dete- rioration of the inner cities. Preserve the natural resources and open space areas identified in locally adopted plans, particularly where they are regionally signifi- cant and, where possible, those identified in SCAG's Conservation and Open Space Plan. Preserve, wherever possible, prime and potentially prime agricultural lands and open space areas separating communities. Limit or use special design requirements for urban development of lands designated by local governments as having low suitability for development, such as areas with steep slopes or areas with high fire, flood or seismic hazards. Phase development according to the availability of adequate public and private services and facilities, and strive for timely infrastructure support for planned growth. Support SCAG's Housing Program calling for a balance distribution of housing types within each subregion, and SCAG's Regional Transporta- tion Plan calling for increased transit use. Population Growth In The SCAG Counties 1976-2000 COUNTY DISTRIBUTION Imperial County: Reflecting the rates experienced between 1970 and 1976, Imperial County is expected to grow by 46,000 or 55% between I976 and 2000, which results in a year 2000 population of 129,000. This forecast equals the State Department of Finance's E-150 Forecast. Los Angeles County: During the period 1976 to 2000, Los Angeles County is forecasted to grow by 794,000 or 11%, making the 2000 population'approxi- mately 7.8 million. This forecast is counter to the previous six year trend (1970 to 1975), during which Los Angeles County lost 44,000 people. The forecast is slightly lower (11,000 people or less than 1%). than that shown in Los Angeles County's Proposed General Plan. Orange County: Orange County's population for the year 2000 is forecasted to reach about 2.8 million, an increase of approximately 1.0 million or 60% over 1976. This county is forecasted to absorb the largest number (approximately one third) of the population growth in the region during the 24-year period. Considerable growth is shown to occur in the south- eastern portion of the county. The SCAG-78 Forecast for this county is based on the forecast adopted by the Orange County Board of Supervisors in June, 1978. Riverside County: Riverside County is forecasted to grow from a 1975 population of 532,000 to 956,000 people in the year 2000. This results in an increase of 424,000 people, or 80%. Much of the growth is shown to take place in and around the Cities of Riverside, Corona, and Palm Springs. The Riverside County total was adopted by the County Board of Supervisors in July, 1978. San Bernardino County: San Bernardino County is forecasted to experience 72% growth from 1975 to 2000. This increase in population results in a population of approximately 1.2 million in the year 2000. The San Bernar- dino Valley is expected to receive most of this growth. The forecast falls within the range of 1.0 to 1.2 million adopted by the San Bernardino Association of Governments in June, 1978. Ventura County: Ventura County is forecasted to experience the fastest growth rate of any county in the SCAG region. The SCAG-78 Forecast shows the county growing from a population of 446,000 in 1976 to 792,000 in the year 2000, for an increase of 346,000 people or 78%. The forecast for this county is based on the forecast adopted in May, 1978 by the Ventura County Board of Supervisors and the Ventura County Association of Govern- ments. HOUSING Due to a forecasted decrease in household size, the SCAG region is expected to experience a higher rate of housing growth than population growth. The SCAG-78 Forecast adds approximately 1.5 million new dwelling units to the region between 1976 and 2000. This represents an increase of 37% from the 1976 housing stock. Population by comparison grows by 30%. The forecast also calls for moderate housing densities. The ~verage density of new construction {including construction on new and recycled land) within the region is forecasted to be 7.5 dwelling .units per acre. The forecast assumes moderate housing recycle rates i.e., demolition of lower density units and replacement with higher density units. Twenty percent (20%) of the regional housing increase is forecasted to occur on recycled land. This would result in the demolition of 97,000 homes, or 2.4% of the 1976 housing stock. EMPLOYMENT Due to increasing population, a growing regional economy, and increasing labor force participation rates, regional employment is expected to grow by an additional 2.2 million jobs, or 48%, between 1975 and the year 2000. Most of this growth is expected to be experienced by Los Angeles (38%} and Orange (34%) Counties. The other counties are also sho~m to incur strong employment growth. The employment to population ratios for the Counties of Riverside, San Bernardino and Ventura are shown as increasing, thereby leading to a better balance of jobs with population than exists today. This should help to reduce long distance commutes. LAND USE By the year 2000, increases in population, housing and employment are expected to necessitate the development of 309,000 additional urban acres, or 27% over the 1975 base. Most of this growth is anticipated to occur in Orange County (29%). Los Angeles, Ventura, San Bernardino and Riverside Counties all show about equal amounts of added urban acres (approximately 50,000 acres}. ~970 336 346 $CAG-78 (j~u'4. ~979) - TOTAL ~gSO ~955 ~.ggo 300 300 300 ~995 (JAN. 1979) - TOTAL *~MPLOYIe~NT · YEARS !995 ZOOO t8 i INFORMATION PACKAGE ON SCAG-78 Attachment A October 25, 1979 WHAT IS SCAG-787 Forecasts of population, housing, employment and land use for 1980, '85, '90, '95 and 2000. The forecasts are by 55 Regional Statistical Areas and 35 sewer service areas. HOW MUCH GROWTH DOES IT FORECAST FOR THE REGION BY THE YEAR 2000? 3.1 million more persons or an increase of 30%. 2.2 million more jobs or 48%. WHAT ARE THE FORECASTS BASED ON? Assumptions of probable birth, mortality and migration rates. Sub-regional distributions are based upon such factors as historical trends, known development proposals, amounts of available land and adopted local government and regional policies. HOW WAS SCAG-78 DEVELOPED? Local government forecasts were collected and totaled. Six alternatives, including a sum of local government forecasts, were developed and analyzed. Public hearings, workshops and committee meetings were held to discuss the alternatives and to establish the basic assumptions and policies for the new forecast. Within this framework, input from local governments was again sought. ).lost large jurisdictions revised their original forecasts and submitted them for use in the new regional forecast. Draft SCAG-78 was developed and distributed to all the local governments of the region for review and comment in August, 1978. Revisions were made, and it was adopted in January, 1979. WHAT WAS THE EXTENT OF LOCAL GOVERNMENT PARTICIPATION? At every step of the process -- the development of alternatives, analysis of the alternatives, selection of assumptions and policies, review of a draft forecast -- comments were solicited from local governments. Choices were made by co~ittees composed entirely of local elected officials. -2- SCAG-78 represents input made by many jurisdictions including: Ventura County, Ventura County Association of Governments, Los Angeles County, Los Angeles City, Cities of Pasadena and Long Beach, Orange County, San Bernardino County, San Bernardino County Association of Governments, Riverside County, and Coachella Valley Association of Governments. WHAT IS SCAG-78 USED FOR? The sizing and funding of wastewater facilities. Forecasts of traffic as a basis for making regional transportation decisions. Forecasts of air quality as a basis for the Regional Air Quality Management Program. Forecasts of housing need as a basis for the Regional Housing Allocation Model (RHAM). The RHAM is used for local Housing Assistance Plans and for allocation of housing bonus funds. A basis for A-95 Review of proposals. A regional perspective to help in local government decision making. HOW OFTEN IS THE REGIONAL FORECAST REVISED? Approximately every two years. Amendments can be made at anytime. A Regional Development Monitoring System is being established to provide the most up-to-date data available for use in the revision process. WHAT DOES SCAG-7$ SHOW FOR MY CITY? In order to allow flexibility, SCAG-78 is adopted by 55 Regional Statistical Areas (RSA's) and not by city. However, a draft interpretation of the RSA forecast to cities is being prepared and will be sent to you as soon as available. This will be just one of many possible interpretations of the RSA forecast to cities. Cities and counties will be encouraged to work together to develop their own disaggregations of the RSA total. SCAG does not intend to adopt these city forecasts, but rather to encourage local governments to use them as technical aids and as a benchmark within a development monitoring system. -3- RESOLUTIONS OF CONCURRENCE wHy IS SCAG SEEKING RESOLUTIONS OF CONCURRENCE' WITH SCAG-78 NOW? As a condition for using SCAG-78 instead of the State's own forecasts, the State Water Resources Control Board has called for resolutions of concurrence with SCAG-78 from local jurisdictions representisg 90% of the region's population by January 1, 1980. We believe that a good deal of concensus with SCAG-78 currently exists and wish to document this fact for the State. We would like to better identify where disagreements exist, so that these differences can be addressed. WHY SHOULD MY JURISDICTION ADOPT A RESOLUTION CONCURRING WITH SCAG-787 Without resolutions of concurrence, the State may force this region to use the "F-75" forecast, which is approximately I million persons or 7% lower than SCAG-78 and shows 30% less growth. SCAG-78 was locally derived and it more closely follows local government plans than do the forecasts developed by the State. Amendments and .revisions can be made more easily to SCAG's forecasts than the State's. SCAG is more accessable than the State and our committees are composed entirely of local government officials. Projects which are consistent with SCAG-78 are also consistent with the growth assumption in the Regional Air Quality, Water Quality and Transporation Plans. The red tape involved in obtaining state and federal approval for these projects then should be considerably reduced. WHAT ARE THE IMPLICATIONS FOR MY JURISDICTION IF IT ADOPTS A RESOLUTION OF CONCURRENCE? The resolution is primarily an indicator for SCAG and the State as to whether local governments' plans and forecasts are truly reflected in the regional forecast. By adopting the resolution, your jurisdiction will help SCAG convince the State to use SCAG-78 for funding purposes rather than the State's own forecast. The resolution asks your jurisdiction to concur with SCAG-78 for use in regional plans. During the next few months we will work with you an---d your neighboring jurisdictions to refine city forecasts which are both locally acceptable and consistent with the regional forecasts. These city forecasts would then be available for city use a~d for use within a development monitoring system. Also, in early 1981 we will be asking your jurisdiction to participate in a process to revise SCAG-78. -4- HOW DOES SCAG COMPARE TO THE STATES OWN FORECASTS? For purposes of funding wastewater facilities, federal ~regulations state that if an area does not have an approved 208 plan, then the State must use forecasts which are within 5% of the forecasts prepared by the Federal Bureau of Economic Analysis. In response to these regulations, the State has proposed the use of the State's "F-75" Forecast. If the State uses F-75 rather than SCAG-78, less money would be available for constructing sewers and treatment plants. This could lead to more state imposed moratoria on construction within this region. F-75 is approximately I million persons lower than SCAG-78 and shows 30% less growth. The table below compares F-75 to SCAG-78 by county. Population, Year 2000 County San Regional Imperial Los Angeles Orange Riverside Bernardin° Ventura Total State's "F-75 Forecast 122,000 7,388,400 2,579,500 842,700 1,022,100 731,500 12,686,200 SCAG-78 129',000 7,789,'000 2,758,100 955,800 1,195,700 791,000 13,619,300 Difference 7,000 400,600 179,000 113,000 174,000 60,000 933,000 Attachment B October 25, 1979 MODEL RESOLUTION OF CONCURRENCE WITH THE SCAG-78 GROWTH FORECAST POLICY Whereas, the SCAG-78 Growth Forecast ~olicy was developed with the participation of local governments; Whereas, SCAG-78 has been incorporated into the region's Air Quality Management, Wastewater Treatment, Housing and Transportation Plans; Whereas, as a requirement for using SCAG-78 instead of State forecasts for the funding of wastewater facilities, the State Water Resources Control Board has called for resolutions from local governments of concurrence with SCAG-78; Whereas, if SCAG-78 is not approved, the State may use its "F-75" Forecast -- a forecast which is approximately i million persons lower than SCAG-?8 and shows 30% less growth; and, Whereas, the SCAG-78 Forecast is revised approximately every two years and amendments can occur at anytime; Now, therefore, be it resolved that (jurisdiction) concurs with the use of the SCAG-78 Growth Forecast Policy for use in regional plans. 1 2 5 6 ? 8 9 10 11 12 14 15 ~6 18 19 20 I 80 RESOLUTION NO. 80-1 A RESOLUTION OF THE CITY COUNCIL OF TrlE CITY OF TUSTIN, CALIFORNIA SUPPORTING SCAG GRO~IH FORECAST POLICY WHERE4S, the SC&G-78 Growth Forecast Policy was developed with the participation of local governments; and [~tERE&S, SCAG-78 has been incorporated into the region's Air Quality Management, Wastewater Treatment, }loUsing and Transportation Plans; and ~dERE&S, as a requirement for using SCAG-78 instead of State forecasts for the funding of wastewater facilities, the State ~Vater Resources Control Board has called for resolutions from local governments of con- currence with SCAG-78; and I%~rIER~&S, if SCAG-78 is not approved, the state may use its "F-TS" Forecast-a .forecast which is approximately 1 million persons lower than SC&Gr78 and shows 50% less growth; and, WHEREAS, the SCAG-78 Forecast is revised approximately every two years and amendments can occur at any time; NOW, THEREFORE, BE IT RESOLVED by the City Council of the City of Tustin that the City of Tustin concurs with the use of the SCAG-78 Growth Forecast Policy for use in regional plans. PASSED A\~3 ADOPTED at a regular meeting of the City Council of the City of Tustin, held on the day of __, 1980. Mayor ATFEST: City Clerk