HomeMy WebLinkAbout10 DEMOGRAPHIC PROJ 05-17-04
AGENDA REPORT
Agenda Item 10
Reviewed: d
City Manager
Finance Director -!il8....
MEETING DATE:
MAY 17, 2004
FROM:
WilLIAM HUSTON, CITY MANAGER
COMMUNITY DEVELOPMENT DEPARTMENT
TO:
SUBJECT:
DEMOGRAPHIC PROJECTIONS
SUMMARY:
At the April 5, 2004, City Council meeting, Mayor Pro Tem Bone requested that staff
provide a report to the Council describing how demographic projections for housing,
population, and employment are developed in Orange County. The projections are
produced by the Center for Demographic Research at California State University Fullerton
in coordination with the County of Orange and the County's 34 cities. The most recent
projections show that the County's population will grow by 706,000 between 2000 and
2030.
RECOMMENDATION
That the City Council receive and file this report.
FISCAL IMPACT
This report is for information only; therefore, there is no fiscal impact.
DISCUSSION
The Center for Demographic Research at California State University, Fullerton prepares
demographic projections for the County of Orange following the solicitation of input from
the County of Orange and its 34 individual cities. The projections are known as the
Orange County Projections (OCP) and are developed every few years.
The most recent Orange County Projections (OCP 2004) were approved by the Orange
County Council of Governments on February 26, 2004. These projections were submitted
to the Southern California Association of Governments, which incorporated the projections
into their 2004 Regional Transportation Plan (RTP). The projections are also used by
various local and regional agencies for transportation and infrastructure planning,
congestion management, air quality management, integrated waste management, and
growth management.
Demographics Report
May 17, 2004
Page 2
In the OCP 2004, population, housing, and employment have been projected in five-year
increments through the year 2030. It is projected that the County's population will grow to
3,552,742 by year 2030, which is an increase of approximately 706,000 from its Census
2000 population. During the same time period, the population of Tustin is expected to
grow to 88,788, or a thirty-year increase of approximately 20,000.
To develop the Orange County projections, the Center for Demographic Research works
closely with jurisdictions and requests employment and housing growth data from the
individual cities and the County. In Tustin, for example, information from the MCAS Tustin
Specific Plan was provided to project growth in Tustin Legacy. General Plan, zoning, and
vacant land summaries are also used to project growth. The Center for Demographic
Research takes the input it receives from jurisdictions and compares it with projections
developed using demographic models based on countywide growth assumptions.
Although the task of merging larger demographic trends with city and County land use
projections can be complex, the Center for Demographic Research has produced
projections in the past which have proven to be accurate.
The process for developing the next set of Orange County projections is anticipated to
begin in 2005.
~~
1) Senior Planner
á~~ 7i?~
Elizabeth A. Binsaék
Community Development Director
S,\CddlCCREPORT\Demographk'. Reportl 05-17-04.doo