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HomeMy WebLinkAboutDRAFT MAP PRESENTATION J 151 i O Pe rs Canyort Regional Pk{{. z I t National Demographics Corporation L^ 4 Q ` NDC Alem • GMI Park fP+ivata) .�Yn4af School t pp flistir Ranch Goll Course j Hasp I stin g;Tustin i �.. � i b. �`a2017 CALIPER ciqr, of Tustin Draft Map Presentation Oct -vitt, National Demographics C • . • • fvL_V� NDC Districting Process National Demographics Corporation Step Description Initial Workshop Education and to solicit input on the composition of districts. August 31, 2021 Two Initial Hearings Held prior to release of draft maps. Sept. 7 & Sept. 17 Education and to solicit input on the composition of districts. Census Data Release Census Bureau releases official 2020 Census population data. August 12, 2021 California Data Release California Statewide Database releases California's official `prisoner- Early October 2021 adjusted' 2020 redistricting data. Release draft maps Maps must be posted at least 7 days prior to 3rd hearing. Two hearings on draft maps Two meetings to discuss and revise the draft maps and to discuss Oct. 9 & Oct. 25 the election sequence. Map adoption Map adopted via ordinance. By November 1, 2021 Final map must be posted at least 7 days prior to adoption. Oct 25, 2021 L L-V� -V� fvL C ND Redig strictin Rules and Goals National Demographics Corporation 1. Federal Laws ---2. California Criteria for 3. Other Traditional 16 Cities Redistricting Principles Equal Population 1. Geographically contiguous Minimize voters shifted to Federal Voting Rights Act different election years 2. Undivided neighborhoods No Racial Gerrymandering and "communities of Respect voters' choices / interest" continuity in office (Socio-economic geographic areas Future population growth that should be kept together) Preserving the core of existing 3. Easily identifiable districts boundaries 4. Compact - r (Do not bypass one group of people to get to a more distant group of people) 11R Prohibited: L "Shall not favor or discriminate against a political party." Oct 25, 2021 fvL_V� NDCMaps Received National Demographics Corporation ❑ 16 maps total submitted by residents 11 original maps shown 10/9 0 5 new public maps ■ 1 new population-balanced, four-district map ■ 1 map received after the submission deadline but before the posting deadline ❑ 5 maps drawn by NDC based on community input and public map concepts 2 new maps 120 and 121 based on direction received on 10/9 ❑ Maps available for public viewing: 0 PDFs on city website Q Online viewer o Paper copies available Oct 25,2021 NDC National Demographics Corporation Addi* tional Maps Oct 25, 2021 fvL_V� NDC Other Maps Received On Time National Demographics Corporation City of Tustin Districting 2021 RFOENED City of Tustin Districting 2021 ED sj II 116 Draw Your Fn}SfINT '" TUSTIN E 117 "Draw Your �w WE Community" , Community" Map Map A. r {� r i i \ � Draw on the map& Draw on the map& ` describe our communi : describe our communi : City of Tustin DistriCting 2021 I��® Draw Your F„ Community" Map 0 Mu.1 T 9ounda�le5 �6b a� wn�s t "" f� ®nisosarxas N ©Mlle N r Not Population-Balanced Not Population-Balanced Draw on & describe your community: Would require completion of an ommuni 118 extensive analysis to determine conformance with federal population balancing requirements Oct 25,2021 N NDC National Demographics Corporation Population-Balanced Oct 25, 2021 fvL-V� NDC Map 109 National Demographics Corporation Peters Carryon R g k 17th St Ir 5t_�P �1 it 2 H'14-1, - �,�'n _ L1 O vsr--n Manch G acres 3 n � �1 LJ r � Map layers w Map 109 Railroad �a Streets Landmark Point Oct 25,2021 ©zazl cauPeR Landmark Area fvL-V� ND C Map 112 National Demographics Corporation � f it ss Peters Capon R�g .k 4 /r 5t_sx1 J Y� 2 r 'W J �1 LJ r � Map layers ew Map 112 Railroad �a Streets Landmark Point Oct 25,2021 ©zazl cauPeR Landmark Area fvL-V� ND C Map 113 National Demographics Corporation Peters Canyon Rig k �r l Ij-T1 � 4!�. ytd) ranch G, a I — 2 a 4 S° c�N J 14�0 ��b SLP J1 Map layers ew Map 113 Railroad �a Streets Landmark Point Oct 25,2021 ©zazl cauPeR Landmark Area fvL-V� ND C Map 114 National Demographics Corporation i Peters Ga on Rq, �. k 7/ 1 t St :j7- i T stst f�� ■ J CT oaistarinch G o 3 10 ti-�9 Map layers �a ew � Map 114 os Railroad �a Streets Landmark Point Oct 25,2021 ®zazl cauPeR Landmark Area fvL-V� ND C Map 115 National Demographics Corporation ss — Peters Canyon Roiona1-P 17th St= r+� -1T t� �0 W 1st St 0 - 2 ••• 1 yah ^`'):nch Golf Course •tib met �G X21 Map layers Map 115 Railroad \ Streets Landmark Point Oct 25,2021 02021 CALIPER Landmark Area fvL-V� NDC Map 120 National Demographics Corporation ss Peters Canyon Regional-P �r t 4- T ia a W 1st St a lid [2 rya 41 1 �}y�� (Y• rtE y� 4 met Ilk X21 Map layers Map 120 Railroad Streets Landmark Point Oct 25,2021 82021 CALIPER Landmark Area fvL-V� NDC Map 121 National Demographics Corporation ss — Peters Canyon Roiona1-P 17th St= W 1st St -it ... ya —3]Fastin Ran,.wolf Course 2 •tib get 9k QF Map layers Map 121 Railroad Streets Landmark Point Oct 25,2021 02021 CALIPER Landmark Area NDC MapComparison Table National Demographics Corporation Total 4.01% 5.17% 8.70% 2.76% 3.17% 3.68% 8.58% Deviation Highest 60% (D1) 58% (D2) 60% (D2) 59% (D2) 57% (D2) 57% (D2) 54% (D2) Latino CVAP Highest Asian 35% (D4) 35% (D4) 35% (D4) 35% (D4) 35% (D4) 35% (D4) 34% (D3) CVAP 34% D3 34% D3 32% 3 34% 3 34% D3 34% D3 32% D4 Districts D 1 & D2 D 1 & D2 D3 D 1 & D2 D 1 & D2 D 1 & D2 D1 crossing I-5 Oct 25,2021 NDC National Demographics Corporation Sequenci* ng Oct 25, 2021 fvL_V� NDCElection Year Sequencing National Demog2pltics Corporation ❑ Once a map is chosen, each district must be assigned an initial election year ❑ A move to by-district elections cannot shorten the term of a current Representative ❑ Districts come up for election as current terms end (no change in the number of elections in a given year) ❑ Any other combination results in the wrong number of people on the dais ❑ The Mayor counts as one of the five positions that must be assigned an election year Tustin must place two districts on the 2022 election cycle and three in 2024 Oct 25,2021 fvL_V� NDC 'Representation ASAP' Goal Conflict National Demographics Corporation ❑ Traditionally under-represented areas generally want to hold the by-district election in their new district as soon as possible. When the next election is a Presidential election (as was the case when Elections Code Section 10010(b) was written in 2016), this makes the decision easy. When the next election is a Gubernatorial election (as it is now), this may conflict with the goal of enhancing the ability of a historically low-turnout area to elect their preferred candidate. ❑ Historically low-turnout areas tend to have more extreme turnout differences between gubernatorial and presidential election years The degree of impact is correlated with other factors such as income and immigration status, leading to the greatest impacts on the most under-represented communities. ❑ The "next election" is a one-time event, but assigning an area to a Gubernatorial or a Presidential election is essentially a permanent decision. Once someone is elected from that area, future post-census redistrictings generally keep the district on the same election cycle as the local representative. With low turnout in midterm election cycles, a district could repeatedly fail to perform Oct 2.5, 2021 fvL_V� NDCAssigning Election Years National Demographics Corporation ❑ Sequencing Goals: Elections Code Section 10010 (b) : ■ "In determining the final sequence of the district elections . . . the governing body shall give special consideration to the purposes of the California Voting Rights Act of 2001, and it shall take into account the preferences expressed by members of the districts." Enhance historically under-represented areas' ability to elect their preferred candidate(s) Provide historically under-represented areas representation sooner rather than later ■ This goal can conflict with the previous goal when the first by-district elections fall in a gubernatorial election year C Do not arbitrarily block voters from opportunity to re-elect a current Representative Oct 25,2021 NDCRepresentation in "Vacant" Districts National Demographics Corporation ❑ Representatives up for re-election in the later election year remain "at-large" representatives until the later election year, representing (and subject to recall by) the entire jurisdiction. ❑ The residents of any district assigned to a later-year election remain represented by the at-large, later-year representatives. Oct 25,2021 NDC Re-Election Impacts National Demographics Corporation Representative Resides in 2022 districtRepresentative Resides in 2024 District. Representative leaves office Representative's at end of term. Representative can run for re-election in the Term Ends in Representative can run for 2022 district at end of current term. the office two years later, though not as an incumbent. (Option 1) Representative leaves office at end of term, and could run again two years later (in 2026), though not as an incumbent. Representative's Representative can run for Term Ends in (Option 2) Representative runs for by-district seat re-election in the district at 2024 in 2022. If elected, resigns at-large seat (leaving a end of current term. 2-year vacancy in the at-large seat) and is sworn into by-district seat. If unsuccessful, remains in office until 2024 end of current at-large term. Oct 25,2021 fvL-v� NDCSequencingImpacts on Council National Demographics Corporation Map 1 2 3 4 109 Vacant Gomez Clark Cooper, Gallagher, & Lumbard 112 Gomez Vacant Clark Cooper, Gallagher, & Lumbard 113 Gomez Vacant Clark & Cooper Gallagher & Lumbard 114 Gomez & Cooper Vacant Clark Gallagher & Lumbard 115 Gomez Vacant Clark Cooper, Gallagher, & Lumbard 120 Gomez & Cooper Vacant Clark Gallagher & Lumbard 121 Gomez Vacant Clark Cooper, Gallagher, & Lumbard Oct 2.5, 2021 fvL_V� NDC Discussion & Hearing National Demographics Corporation ❑ Next Steps: Conduct a public hearing to receive public input regarding selection of a district map and the sequence of district elections 2. Approve a motion to select a district map and determine the sequence of district elections 3. Approve a motion to introduce and have first reading of the ordinance adopting by-district elections Oct 25,2021 NDC National Demographics Corporation Oct 25, 2021 fvL-v� NDCNot Balanced Maps : Quadrants National Demographics Corporation v L � ss 101 Peters Canyon Reg�9v P.k 111 T� Patars Canyrrn H�g.rcgar PK 3 7 St �Qr- z y31 2 'GI / . ' 3 4z 91"F Pere�carie,Re k 4 _ Map layers b Map 111 Railroad Streets 1�b Landmark Point hd Landmark Arca X2021 CALIPER 43021 CALIPER 1 _ W � i c� 4,o 110 -,F o�P Map layers Map 110 Railroad landmark Point Oct 25,2021 —21 CALIPER Landmark Area fvL-v� NDCNot Balanced Maps : Freeway National Demographics Corporation J* as 103 Aeters Canyon R@g e;Pk 104H PEI-Canyon R$gpggj T �k 3 7 St 'C t 12 ni c ^cc 3 �- h e Pefe��Ganyo:!R@ k _ 4 Map layers 4� Map 104 ea ar' Railroad Streets fro Landmark Point Landmark Arca X2021 CALIPER / 82021 CALIPER fl 2 - P 3 Of 105 c 'YrP 4 Map layers 4a/ Map 105 e° Railroad Streets Landmark Point Oct 25,2021 21 CALIPER Landmark Area fvL-v� NDC Not Balanced Maps : Other National Demographics Corporation � L SII y� {, 6 102 �I�I� Peters Gan!�on Regr7f{�ei?'k 106 ��� Peters Canyc�r?�grc�ar PK 'i" 7�lr St II r _ I i = c ?e a�V 9� ©= c 2 3 _ y r V4 4 4 `` 55 pa k Map layers Map 10h Railroad Streets Landmark Point 7 h Landmark Arca X2021 CALIPER ®2021 CALIPER 2 3 107 4 Map layers Map 107 Railroad Streets Landmark Point Oct 25,2021 —21 CALIPER Landmark Area fvL-V� NDC Five District Map : 108 National Demographics Corporation ss � L Peters Carryon Regional F k L I� y1 t > '2 i Zusfin k nch Godo T © , i i Y , Map layers 4 � Map 108 Railroad Streets Landmark Point Landmark Area Oct 25,2021 ©2021 CALIPER