HomeMy WebLinkAboutPRESENTATION - LEGACY LONG RANGE FINANCIAL MODELING - ITEM 18Legacy Long -
Range Financial
Modeling
September 17, 2024
Legacy Financial Model
Background
Model Assumptions — Data Types
Sample Model Assumptions and Output
Next Steps
Background
Requested by Council during FY 24-25 budget preparation.
Model intends to forecast fiscal impacts of Legacy buildout as related to the
City's overall fiscal position.
Model will be developed by consultants from Fieldman Rolapp & Associates.
Model's Assumptions - Data Type
One-time items
Revenues - Land sale proceeds and backbone fees
Units - Residential development
Square Footage (SF)- Commercial development
Expenditures - Planned infrastructure improvement projects funded from one-time land sale and backbone fee
revenues
o Grading of land
o Utility installation
o Streets and storm drains
New parks
Pedestrian bridges, etc.
Model's Assumptions Data Type
(Continued)
Recurring items (General Fund):
Del" /onI ioc
• Tax revenue based on development — property tax,
special tax B, real property transfer tax, and business
License tax;
• Tax revenue based on population growth (residential and
business) — sales tax;
• Revenue based on average service fees — building and
planning permits and other charges for services;
Expenditures
• Police and Fire - based on cost per capita;
• Maintenance for streets, storm drains, parks, and
Landscaping - based on average service cost;
• Street rehabilitation (occur every 7-8 years) — based on
average cost;
• Utilities — projected usage and average cost;
• Building and planning permits - based on average service
• Other potential new revenues (i.e. lease revenues, cost;
transient occupancy tax).
• Administrative support - % of above direct costs.
Each element can be adiusted based on individual scenario
Sample Model:
Scenarios and
Assumptions
Sample Scenario
Residential Units 10-Years
Residential SF Per Unit (average)
Commercial SF 10-Years
Office SF 10-Years
Sample Basic Assumptions:
Headcount Residential Per Unit
Headcount Commercial Per 1000 SF
Population Growth 10-Years
Taxable SF Growth 10-Years
Legacy Beginning Available Funding
Legacy Land Sale Proceeds 10-Years
Legacy Capital Projects Costs 10-years
#1 1 #2
I �,
1,800
1,000,000
n/a
2.5
2
2500
1,340,000
$10
million
$30
million
$25
million
1,800
1,000,000
1,000,000
2.5
2
5500
3,020,000
$10 million
$60 million
$50 million
Sample Model:
Recurring
Sample Legacy Long -Range Forecast Dashboard
Net Cash Flow by Year - Recurring General Fund
$2 5
$2.0
$15
$7 ,0
$0.5
$4.0 ft IL IL
2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033
Scenario 1 Scenario 2
2034 2035
Sample Model:
Recurring and
One -Time
Combined
$14
G
$12
$10
$8
$6
$4
`L $2
S
W
ra
U
$o
z
{$2)
{ $4)
($6)
Sample Legacy Long -Range Forecast Dashboard
Net Cash Flow by Year - One -Time and Recurring General Fund
and Accumulated Available Funding
2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Scenario 1
—Accu. Avail Funding, Scenario 1
$35 Ln
C
D
30 M
$25
$20
$15
$10
2032
2033 2034 2035
Scenario 2
Accu. Avail Funding, Scenario 2
$5
$0
Next Steps
Seek input and direction from the Council regarding the model's framework
Next steps:
Analysis of underlying data to support assumptions
Improve accuracy of assumptions and completeness of the model's framework
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N UJII
Remembering what connects us.
Thank You'.