HomeMy WebLinkAbout11-ATTACHMENT MVo Zonda,.
Advisors
Date: November 19, 2025
To: City of Tustin
C/O Kingsbarn Realty Capital
From: Tim Sullivan
Evan Forrest
ZONDA
435 S. Cedros Avenue, Suite 304
Solana Beach, CA 92075
SUBJECT: Economic and Fiscal Impact Analysis for Cypress Grove Site, a Redevelopment
Opportunity Located in Tustin, California
Zonda is pleased to present this independently conducted Economic Impact Study (EIS) to
Kingsbarn Realty Capital ("Kingsbarn") about the proposed Cypress Grove Site project ("Subject")
in Tustin, California. Kingsbarn is planning to develop a residential community at 17772-17862
17th Street in the City of Tustin. The 8.5-acre property comprises 105,031 square feet of leasable
commercial space in five three-story buildings. Kingsbarn wants to redevelop the property to +/-
145 residential units, including townhomes and single-family homes. The City of Tustin has
requested an Economic Impact Analysis to 1) estimate the amount of tax revenues and permitting
fees the project could generate for the City, and 2) detail the office building inventory on the
blocks surrounding the Site to determine if there is sufficient existing space/ vacant space nearby
that can accommodate office demand in the future.
This study analyzes the fiscal impact the proposed Cypress Grove Site project is likely to yield,
including tax revenues, fees, jobs, and wages generated by the development, ultimately
benefiting the City of Tustin and Orange County. Revenues are generated primarily through
sources such as real property taxes, retail expenditures, sales tax revenues from new households
living in the community, and development permits and fees collected by the City. We assume a
planning start date of 2025 and residential sales beginning in 2027, though we recognize that the
timing is subject to change and that revenues need to be adjusted accordingly. Tax revenue
estimates are Zonda's estimates based on city, county, and state resources, as well as the local
market, and are not a representation of the developer, Kingsbarn Realty Capital.
Zonda examined the tax revenue implications of the Subject Project over a long-term period (20
years) to show both annual and aggregate tax revenues. Our report includes the following
information:
I. Executive Summary of Key Findings
Economic and Fiscal Impact Analysis derived from:
1) Property tax revenue
2) Additional spending propensities and sales tax revenue from new residents
City of Tustin
C/O KINGSBARN REALTY CAPITAL
November 19, 2025
Page 2
3) Permits and fees
III. Jobs Creation, Wages, and Total Economic Impact
1) During construction
2) At completion/ fully operational
IV. Summary and Conclusions
Xv ZondaT.
This report includes a brief series of exhibits that depict the research conducted in our analysis.
In addition, the City of Tustin requested an Office Inventory Analysis that details the
characteristics (square feet, occupancy, lease rates, etc.) of the existing nearby office buildings.
This is detailed in the Supporting Documentation section of this report.
I. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY OF KEY FINDINGS
Based on our research and analysis, we believe the Subject Site project will have a significant
economic impact on Tustin, generating substantial annual tax revenues for the city. During the
next five years (planning, permits, construction, and home sales) we estimate that the project
will deliver approximately $7,849,843 in taxes and fee revenues for the City of Tustin, or
$6,520,958 in net present value. The initial benefit will result from building permits issued over
the planned three-year buildout period. The following tables summarize these tax sources and
corresponding revenues:
SUBJECT SITE SITE FISCAL IMPACT SUMMARY (2025 - 2029)
Total 2025 2026 2027
2028
2029
1 New Residential Project Property Tax Revenue
$479,004
$0
$0 $80,589
$179,039
$219,376
2 New Residential Project Residents' Spending
$98,304
$18,516
$19,071 $19,644
$20,233
$20,840
3 Permits and Fees
$7,424,144
$0
$0 $2,856,837
$3,365,805
$1,201,502
Minus Existing Building Property Tax Revenue($151,609J
$29,133
$29,716 $30,310
$30,916
$31,534
TOTAL
$7,849,843
1 ($10,617)
($10,644) $2,926,759
$3,534,161
$1,410,184
SUBJECT SITE 5-YEAR FISCAL IMPACT
Tustin
SUBJECT SITE NET PRESENT VALUE OF 5-YEAR
Tustin
SUMMARY (2025 - 2029)
Revenues
REVENUES (2025 - 2029)
Revenues
1 New Residential Project Property Tax Revenue
$479,004
1 New Residential Project Property Tax Revenue
$388,799
2 New Residential Project Residents' Spending
$98,304
2 New Residential Project Residents' Spending
$84,876
3 Permits and Fees
$7,424,144
3 Permits and Fees
$6,178,308
Minus Existing Building Property Tax Revenue
($151,609)
Minus Existing Building Property Tax Revenue
($131,024)
TOTAL
$7,849,843
TOTAL NPV (@ 5% Discount Rate)'
$6,520,958
1. Discount rate determined by planned time between the present and development occurring
at the Subject Site,
which is planned by2027 with sales to laslthree years.
Zonda estimated the fiscal impact of the Subject Site over a 20-year timeframe. To conduct this
analysis, Zonda considered variables such as increased property values and inflation, which
impact these estimates over time. We estimate that the project will deliver approximately
$11,588,921 in tax and fee revenues to Tustin over a 20-year period (2025 to 2044), with a net
present value of $8,508,591. The following tables summarize these tax sources and
corresponding revenues:
City of Tustin
C/O KINGSBARN REALTY CAPITAL
November 19, 2025
Page 3
Xv Zonda-
SUBJECT SITE 20-YEAR FISCAL IMPACT
Tustin
SUBJECT SITE NET PRESENT VALUE OF 20-YEAR
Tustin
SUMMARY (2025 - 2044)
Revenues
REVENUES (2025 - 2044)
Revenues
1 New Residential Project Property Tax Revenue
$4,348,646
1 New Residential Project Property Tax Revenue
$2,449,533
2 New Residential Project Residents' Spending
$523,984
2 New Residential Project Residents' Spending
$307,996
3 Permits and Fees
$7,424,144
3 Permits and Fees
$6,178,308
Minus Existing Building Property Tax Revenue
$707,853
Minus Existing Building Property Tax Revenue
$427,246
TOTAL
$11,588,921
TOTAL NPV (@ 5% Discount Rate)
$8,508,591
Source: Zonda, City of Tustin
Cypress Grove will also be a driver of job creation and corresponding wages, with a positive
impact on the community. These jobs will be generated during both the construction phase
(primarily construction workers, but also vendors, suppliers, and management) and the
operations phase (residential community maintenance).
We further estimate that the project's construction phase will create and/or support
approximately 60 jobs. In contrast, the ongoing operation of the finished project will generate
and/or support 6 additional jobs, for a total of 66 jobs. While there will be limited job losses from
the closure of the office buildings, there will be potential revenue.
The following table summarizes our estimate of total jobs created by the Project:
Jobs Creation Summary
One Time Direct Jobs (Construction & Management) 40
One Time Indirect Jobs (Vendors, Suppliers, Etc.) 20
60
Ongoing Jobs at Stabilization (Community Maintenance) 4
Implied Indirect Jobs (Vendors, Suppliers, Etc.) 2
6
Minus Current Jobs Estimate in Existing Office Buildings -50
Finally, our research indicates that office market conditions have been relatively soft for the past
few years, and according to Moody's/REIS office market data, the current vacancy rate in the
Central Orange County submarket is 21.1%, which represents a high vacancy rate (we consider+/-
10% a "normal" office vacancy rate). This equates to a total of 3,327,000 square feet in this
submarket. Over the past five and a half years, the vacancy rate has exceeded 16%, indicating a
consistently high vacancy rate before, during, and after the COVID-19 pandemic. See the
following page for historical average vacancy rates in the Central Orange County submarket.
City of Tustin
C/O KINGSBARN REALTY CAPITAL
November 19, 2025
Page 4
25.0%
20.0%
15.0%
10.0%
5.0%
0.0%
Source: REIS
Xv Zondar.
Central Orange County Office Occupancy
20.6%
18.9% 19.4%
17.4%
16.6% 16.41. 16.1115.2%
16.2% 16.7%
14.4%
13.3% 13.5%
21.3% 21.1%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
The average asking lease rate in Central Orange County is $28.17 per square foot per year, or
$2.34 per square foot per month. The average effective rent (actual rental rate after negotiations
and concessions) is $21.06 per square foot per year, or $1.75 per square foot per month (per
REIS). For perspective, the average asking rent within 2 miles of the Subject Property is $30.00
with a median square footage of 3,093. The majority of the offerings are on the opposite side of
California State Route 55 or to the south of the Subject Property along Irvine Boulevard, in closer
proximity to commercial property offerings. The Subject Property Is
The vacant space in the office submarket and limited office space suggest that the local office
market can likely accommodate the displaced office tenants currently occupying the Subject
Property. This is due to its location and high vacancy rate. Additionally, those replacement
spaces are generally located closer to more desirable office areas within commercialized venues.
In contrast, the Subject Property borders more residential areas than properties within 2 miles
that are closer to commercial areas, making the Subject Property less desirable to tenants.
II. ECONOMIC AND FISCAL IMPACT ANALYSIS
In establishing our recommendations for the tax/fee revenue generators of Subject Site, we
considered the following sources:
• Property tax revenue
• Retail and mini warehouse sales tax revenue
• Additional spending propensities from new residents within the community
• Permits and fees
The purpose of this section is to explain the methodology for deriving tax revenues for each of
these sources for both a single year and over a 20-year period (2025 through 2044).
City of Tustin
C/O KINGSBARN REALTY CAPITAL
November 19, 2025
Page 5
A. Property Tax Revenue
Xv Zonda-
Orange County collects taxes from real property, a portion of which are allocated to Tustin.
Property taxes are based on the assessed value of property, which is typically the improved cost
of the property in the case of new commercial construction as well as the sale price of newly
constructed homes. The table below summarizes total home values for the property and property
tax implications (in today's dollars):
Residential Sale Price/ Home Value- 3-Story Townhomes
Residential Sale Price/ Home Value- 3-Story Motor Court
Cumulative Annual Home Sales - - 3-Story Townhomes
Cumulative Annual Home Sales - - 3-Story Motor Courts
Total Home Revenue /Value
Annual Appreciation Estimate (2.0% max per Prop. 13)
Assessment Ratio
Assessed Value
Total Annual Tax Amount
Orange County Primary Tax
City of Tustin Primary Tax
Tustin USD-EL2024 SER 2025
Tustin Unified School District SFIDs (Combined)
Metro Water D-MWDOC
of Tustin Total Property Tax Revenues (2025
Cost/ Value
Units Sauare Feet (In Todav's S
83 1,924 $1,179,785
62 2,625 $1,518,087
$97, 922,170
$94,121,380
2.0%
100%
$192,043,550
Tax Rate
0.0109149 $2,096,136
0.0089511
$1,719,003
0.0010489
$201,432
0.0002845
$54,636
0.0005604
$107,621
0.0000700
$13,443
$201,432
Based on the total value of all home sales of $192,043,550 and an assessment ratio of 100%
(typically at or below 100%), the assessed value of the project is $192,043,550. Property taxes
are estimated at 1.09149% of assessed value, or $2,096,136 annually. Of the 1.0% Primary Tax
amount, approximately 89.511% is allocated to other taxing agencies, and +/-10.489% is
allocated to Tustin, according to the apportionment represented by the Orange County Auditor -
Controller for FY 2025-2026. Including a small tax for the Tustin SFID that is allocated to the City
of Tustin yields a total of $201,432 in property taxes to the City (in today's dollars).
Over the next 20 years, total property taxes are estimated at $45,252,679, of which $4,348,646
will be allocated to Tustin (a net present value of $2,449,533).
Subject Site Total Property Tax Amount Over 20 Years $45,252,679
City of Tustin Total Tax Revenues Over 20 Years $4,348,646
City of Tustin Total Tax Revenues (Net Present Value) $2,449,533
Source: Zonda, City of Tustin
City of Tustin
C/O KINGSBARN REALTY CAPITAL
November 19, 2025
Page 6
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The table below details the 2025-2026 property taxes generated from the existing office buildings
at the Subject Site (in today's dollars):
Units
Parcel - 401-401-17
Existing Building - 17822 17th Street
Existing Building - 17772 17th Street
Existing Building - 17862 17th Street
Existing Building - 17782 17th Street
Existing Building - 17852 17th Street
Total
Annual Appreciation Estimate (2.0% max per Prop. 13)
Assessment Ratio
Assessed Value
Total Annual Tax Amount
Orange County Primary Tax
City of Tustin Primary Tax
Tustin USD-EL2024 SER 2025
Tustin Unified School District SFIDs (Combined)
Metro Water D-MWDOC
Special Assessment Charges
of Tustin Total Property Tax Revenues (2025
Cost/ Value
Feet (In Todav's I
$2, 349, 224
24,941 $6,866,856
20,079 $4,978,579
20,079 $4,260,955
19,966 $4,229,126
19,966 $4,815,260
0 105,031 $27,500,000
2.0%
100%
$27, 500, 000
Tax Rate
0.0109149 $329,991
0.0089511
$246,156
0.0010489
$28, 844
0.0002845
$7, 824
0.0005604
$15,411
0.0000700
$1, 925
$29, 831
$28, 844
Assuming the existing office buildings remain on the Subject Property, over the next 20 years
total property taxes generated are estimated at $8,049,281 million, of which $707,853 will be
allocated to Tustin (or a net present value of $427,246).
Subject Site Total Property Tax Amount Over 20 Years $8,049,281
City of Tustin Total Tax Revenues Over 20 Years $707,853
City of Tustin Total Tax Revenues (Net Present Value) $427,246
Source: Zonda, City of Tustin
B-1. Retail Spending Propensities - Additional Sales Tax Revenue from Residents
Residents who will purchase the Subject Site residential units will naturally buy goods and
services. A portion of these goods and services will likely be bought from establishments within
Tustin, and the City of Tustin collects a portion of sales tax revenue. Specifically, the 7.75% sales
tax rate is split between Tustin (1.0%), Orange County (0.75%), and the State of California (6.0%),
though groceries and entertainment are not taxable.
City of Tustin
C/O KINGSBARN REALTY CAPITAL
November 19, 2025
Page 7
Xv ZondaT.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics has conducted a survey that details the amount of money that
households spend on various goods and services annually, as segmented by income range. The
following table details this survey for 2020, shown below:
Household Income Ranges
$50,000
$70,000
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
to
to
to
to
and
Average Annual Household Expenditures
$69,999
$99,999
$149,999
$199,999
more
Food
$6,026
$7,475
$9,901
$11,002
$14,066
Food At Home
$4,088
$5,044
$6,538
$6,996
$8,883
Food Away (Restaurants)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
$1,938
$2,432
$3,364
$4,006
$5,183
Alcoholic Beverages
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
$350
$444
$610
$1,228
-------
$1,261
-----------
Household Furnishings and Equipment
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
$1,793
$2,396
$2,909
$4,042
$7,002
Apparel and Services
$1,208
$1,145
$2,037
$2,276
$3,405
Transportation
$9,225
$11,098
$14,888
$14,404
$19,397
Vehicle Purchases (net outlay)
$4,044
$4,940
$7,785
$6,619
$9,804
Gasoline, Other Fuels, and Motor Oil
$1,658
$1,859
$2,054
$2,179
$2,258
Other Vehicle Expenses
$3,300
$4,069
$4,720
$5,014
$6,469
Public and Other Transportation
$223
$230
$329
$593
$866
Entertainment
$2,004
$2,694
$4,331
$5,236
$7,654
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Personal Care Products and Services
$539
$652
$934
$961
$1,400
------- --------------- ---------------- PP
Tobacco Products and Smoking Supplies
----------------------------------------------
$367
$351
$305
----------------------
$250
$190
Miscellaneous
$759
$1,059
$1,186
$1,656
$1,750
Source: BLS
The Subject Site will offer for -sale residential units, with an average price of approximately
$1,179,785 for the townhomes and $1,518,087 for the single-family homes, according to
Kingsbarn Realty Capital. According to our own internal research, the market rate price is
supportable. Accordingly, we believe these homeowners will likely fall into the following income
ranges, with an intense concentration in the $150,000 and above segments, as shown on the
following table:
$50,000
$70,000
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
to
to
to
to
and
Household Income Ranges $69,999
$99,999
$149,999
$199,999
more
Est. Mix of Tustin Business Center Site Households 0%
0%
0%
57%
43%
Est. Number of Tustin Business Center Site Households 0
0
0
83
62
These residents will spend approximately $6,887,315 in annual retail expenditures, based on the
most recent 2020 household expenditure survey.
City of Tustin
C/O KINGSBARN REALTY CAPITAL
November 19, 2025
Page 8
STIR_ IFCT CITF PFCIr)FAITC'AA1A111d1 PFTAII CPFAIMAlr PPOPFMCITIF3
Vo ZondaT.
AdvisorU
Average Annual Household Expenditures
$50,000
to
$69,999
$70,000
to
$99,999
$100,000
to
$149,999
$150,000
to
$199,999
$200,000
and
more
TOTAL
Food
Food At Home
Food Away Restaurants
$
$
$
1
$
$
$
$
$
$913,166
$580,668
$332,498
$872,092
$550,746
$321,346
$1,785,258
$1,131,414
$653,844
Alcoholic Beverages
$
$
$
$101,924
$78,182
$180,106
Household Furnishings and Equipment
$
$
$
$335,486
$434,124
$769,610
Apparel and Services
$
$
$
$188,908
$211,110
$400,018
Transportation
Vehicle Purchases (net outlay)
Gasoline, Other Fuels, and Motor Oil
Other Vehicle Expenses
Public and Other Transportation
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$1,195,532
$549,377
$180,857
$416,162
$49,219
$1,202,614
$607,848
$139,996
$401,078
$53,692
$2,398,146
$1,157,225
$320,853
$817,240
$102,911
Entertainment
$
$
$
$434,588
$474,548
$909,136
Personal Care Products and Services
$
$
$
$79,763
$86,800
$166,563
Tobacco Products and Smoking Supplies
$
$
$
$20,750
$11,780
$32,530
$245,948
Miscellaneous $ $ $ $137,448 $108,500
TOTAL RETAIL EXPENDITURES $2020
$
$
$
$3,407,565 $3,479,750
$6,887,315
Additionally, it is reasonable to assume that not all of Cypress Grove residents' retail expenditure
will occur in Tustin. Residents have a variety of retail options outside of Tustin (in Irvine, Orange,
Santa Ana, and elsewhere). Accordingly, we must apply a capture estimate to the various goods
and services categories according to the supply of these multiple categories that are offered
within Tustin as compared to options in other areas. These capture rate estimates range from an
aggressive 50% for Food at Home (Grocery) purchases since Tustin offers several supermarket
options; 50% for Vehicle Purchases (there are 13 auto dealerships in the Tustin Auto Center); and
as low as 10% for Household Furnishings and Equipment (there are limited furniture stores in
Tustin as compared to nearby cities). The following table details our estimates for Tustin
retailers' capture rate estimates (in ) and corresponding expenditure estimates by Subject
Site residents within Tustin, resulting in retail spending of $2,344,742 based on the most recent
2020 household expenditure survey, or $1,597,207 excluding the Food at Home and
Entertainment categories, which are not taxable.
CIIR 11=rT CITE I7FCII)FAITC' AA1A111A1 PFTAII CPFAII)IAIr PPOPFAICITIFC /WITHIN TIICTIAII
Average Annual Household Expenditures
Tustin
Capture
$20,000
to
$29,999
$30,000
to
$39,999
$40,000
to
$49,999
$50,000
to
$69,999
$70,000
and
more
TOTAL
Food
Food At Home
Food Away Restaurants
50%
25%
$
$
$
$
$
$
1
$
$
$373,459
$290,334
$83,125
$355,710
$275,373
$80,337
$729,168
$565,707
$163,461
Alcoholic Beverages
10%
$
$
$
$10,192
$7,818
$18,011
Household Furnishings and Equipment
10%
$
$
$
$33,549
$43,412
$76,961
Apparel and Services
25%
$
$
$
$47,227
$52,778
$100,005
Transportation
Vehicle Purchases (net outlay)
Gasoline, Other Fuels, and Motor Oil
Other Vehicle Expenses
Public and Other Transportation
50%
25%
50%
10%
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$532,906
$274,689
$45,214
$208,081
$4,922
$544,831
$303,924
$34,999
$200,539
$5,369
$1,077,737
$578,613
$80,213
$408,620
$10,291
Entertainment
20%
$
$
$
$86,918
$94,910
$181,827
Personal Care Products and Services
50%
$
$
$
$39,882
$43,400
$83,282
Tobacco Products and Smoking Supplies
50%
$
$
$
$10,375
$5,890
$16,265
Miscellaneous
25%
$
$
$
$34,362
$27,125
$61,487
TOTAL RETAIL EXPENDITURES $2020
$
$
$
$1,168,868 $1,175,873
$2,344,742
TOTAL RETAIL EXPENDITURES ($2020) MINUS FOOD
AT HOME & ENTERTAINMENT
$1,597,207
Although current inflation rates are relatively high, we have applied a 3% increase in spending
levels per year to account for "normal" inflation and increased income levels in the future. During
City of Tustin
C/O KINGSBARN REALTY CAPITAL
November 19, 2025
Page 9
Xv Zonda-
the initial years (2025 - 2029), Cypress Grove Site residents are estimated to spend $9.830 million
on retail expenditures. This yields a total of $761,856 in sales tax revenues, of which $98,304 is
allocated to Tustin.
Tustin
Business Center Site
Hypothetical
Sales Start
Spending
Hypothetical
Hypothetical
(Nov. 2023)
Tax Rate
2025-2029
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
Potential Annual Household Expenditures
$9,830,402
197,20;
,
$1,694,,
71
$1,851,601
$1,907,149
Total Retail Sales Tax Revenues
7.75%
$761,856
a,23,784
_,.d7
$131,322
.. __
.__�,320
$143,499
$147,804
State Tax Revenues (Rate * Taxable)
6.00%
$589,824
$95,832
$98,707
$101,669
$104,719
$107,860
$111,096
$114,429
County Tax Revenues (Rate * Taxable)
0.75%
$73,728
$11,979
$12,338
$12,709
$13,090
$13,483
$13,887
$14,304
Tustin Sales Tax Revenues
1.00%
$98,304
$15,972
$16,451
$16,945
$17,453
$17,977
$18,516
$19,071
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
Potential Annual Household Expenditures
$1,964,364
$2,023,295
$2, 083,993
$2, 146,513
$2, 210,909
$2,277,236
$2,345,553
$2,415,920
$2,488,397
Total Retail Sales Tax Revenues
$152,238
$156,805
$161,509
$166,355
$171,345
$176,486
$181,780
$187,234
$192,851
State Tax Revenues (Rate * Taxable)
$117,862
$121,398
$125,040
$128,791
$132,655
$136,634
$140,733
$144,955
$149,304
County Tax Revenues (Rate * Taxable)
$14,733
$15,175
$15,630
$16,099
$16,582
$17,079
$17,592
$18,119
$18,663
Tustin Sales Tax Revenues
$19,644
$20,233
$20,840
$21,465
$22,109
$22,772
$23,456
$24,159
$24,884
At an annual growth rate of 3%, we estimate that the Cypress Grove Site residents will spend a
total of $54.895 million within Tustin over a 20-year period. This spending propensity level yields
total sales tax revenues of $4,254,369, of which $548,951 is allocated to Tustin (or a net present
value of $310,081).
TOTAL RETAIL EXPENDITURES OVER 20 YEARS $54,895,086
Total Retail Sales Tax Revenues Over 20 Years $4,254,369
Tustin Sales Tax Revenues Over 20 Years $548,951
Tustin Sales Tax Revenues Over 20 Years (NPV) $310,081
Source: Zonda, City of Tustin
B-2. Retail Spending Propensities - Sales Tax Revenue from Office Employees
Similarly, employees at the Subject Site purchase goods and services. A portion of these goods
and services will likely be bought from establishments within Tustin, and the City of Tustin collects
a portion of sales tax revenue. Specifically, the 7.75% sales tax rate is split between Tustin (1.0%),
Orange County (0.75%), and the State of California (6.0%), though groceries and entertainment
are not taxable.
Employees at the Subject Site are estimated to have salaries in the range of $70,000 to $149,999
as shown on the following table:
$50,000
$70,000
$100,000
$150,000 $200,000
to
to
to
to and
Household Income Ranges $69,999
$99,999
$149,999
$199,999 more
Est. Mix of Employees 0% 50% 50% 0% 0%
It is reasonable to assume that not all of the Subject Sites office employees' retail expenditures
will occur in Tustin. It is likely that they live elsewhere and commute to Tustin, thus they are likely
to spend on a few select categories, such as Food Away and Gasoline. We assume that
City of Tustin
C/O KINGSBARN REALTY CAPITAL
November 19, 2025
Page 10
Xv Zonda-
approximately 25% of their Food Away (Restaurants) spending and 25% of their gasoline
purchases occur in Tustin, resulting in retail spending of $60,681 based on the most recent 2020
household expenditure survey.
��n �►yi��rr�.�ddrayd,�►�riidx�ra..nn�_»rn���ya■ten, r��s.»d.c�rnx�unrrr/n, rnc3rn, u
$20,000
$30,000
$40,000
$50,000
$70,000
Tustin
to
to
to
to
and
Average Annual Household Expenditures
Capture
$29,999
$39,999
$49,999
$69,999
more
TOTAL
Food
$
$15,200
$21,025
$
$
$36,225
Food At Home
0%
$
$
$
$
$
$
Food Away Restaurants
25%
$
$15,200
$21,025
$
$
$36,225
Alcoholic Beverages
0%
$
$
$
$
$
$
Household Furnishings and Equipment
0%
$
$
$
$
$
$
Apparel and Services
0%
$
$
$
$
$
$
Transportation
$
$11,619
$12,838
$
$
$24,456
Vehicle Purchases (net outlay)
0%
$
$
$
$
$
$
Gasoline, Other Fuels, and Motor Oil
25%
$
$11,619
$12,838
$
$
$24,456
Other Vehicle Expenses
0%
$
$
$
$
$
$
Public and Other Transportation
0%
$
$
$
$
$
$
Entertainment
0%
$
$
$
$
$
$
Personal Care Products and Services
0%
$
$
$
$
$
$
Tobacco Products and Smoking Supplies
0%
$
$
$
$
$
$
Miscellaneous
0%
$
$
$
$
$
$
TOTAL RETAIL EXPENDITURES ($2020)
$
$26,819
$33,863
$
$
$60,681
TOTAL RETAIL EXPENDITURES ($2020) MINUS
$60,681
FOOD AT HOME & ENTERTAINMENT
Although current inflation rates are relatively high, we have applied a 3% annual increase in
spending levels to account for "normal" inflation and future income growth. Over the next five
years (2025 - 2029), the Subject Site office employees are estimated to spend $373,478 on retail
expenditures. This yields a total of $28,945 in sales tax revenues, of which $3,735 is allocated to
Tustin.
TOTAL SALES TAX REVENUES FROM SUBJECT SITE OFFICE EMPLOYEES
Tax Rate
2025-2029
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
Potential Annual Household Expenditures
$373,478
$60,681
J02,OG,
$64,377
$66,308
$68,297
$70,346
$72,457
Total Retail Sales Tax Revenues
7.75%
$28,945
$4,703
$4,844
$4,989
$5,139
$5,293
$5,452
$5,615
State Tax Revenues (Rate * Taxable)
6.00%
$22,409
$3,641
$3,750
$3,863
$3,978
$4,098
$4,221
$4,347
County Tax Revenues (Rate * Taxable)
0.75 %
$2,801
$455
$469
$483
$497
$512
$528
$543
Tustin Sales Tax Revenues
1.00 %
$3,735
$607
$625
$644
$663
$683
$703
$725
2027
2028
2029
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
Potential Annual Household Expenditures
$74,630
$76,869
$79,175
$81,551
$83,997
$86,517
$89,112
$91,786
$94,539
Total Retail Sales Tax Revenues
$5,784
$5,957
$6,136
$6,320
$6,510
$6,705
$6,906
$7,113
$7,327
State Tax Revenues (Rate * Taxable)
$4,478
$4,612
$4,751
$4,893
$5,040
$5,191
$5,347
$5,507
$5,672
County Tax Revenues (Rate * Taxable)
$560
$577
$594
$612
$630
$649
$668
$688
$709
Tustin Sales Tax Revenues
$746
$769
$792
$816
$840
$865
$891
$918
$945
At an annual growth rate of 3%, we estimate that Subject Site office employees will spend a total
of $2,216,264 within Tustin over 20 years. This spending propensity level yields total sales tax
revenues of $171,760, of which $22,163 is allocated to Tustin (or a net present value of $11,900).
City of Tustin
C/O KINGSBARN REALTY CAPITAL
November 19, 2025
Page 11
Xv Zonda-
TOTAL RETAIL EXPENDITURES OVER 20 YEARS $2,216,264
Total Retail Sales Tax Revenues Over 20 Years $171,760
Tustin Sales Tax Revenues Over 20 Years $22,163
Tustin Sales Tax Revenues Over 20 Years (NPV) $11,900
Source: Zonda, City of Tustin
C. Permits and Fees
Tustin collects building permits, planning, impact, and other administrative fees for new
construction developments. The following tables detail the estimated fees due to the City for the
Subject Site. The total for all permits and fees is estimated at $7,429,844 based on
conversations with City planning representatives for the 145 residential units planned for the
site.
The following table details the building permit fees associated with the development of Subject
Site. The total for all permit fees associated with the development is $1,384,423, or $9,548 per
residential unit.
PFRMITFFFS
Sewer
New
Plan
Permit
Elec., Mech.,
Connect.
Construct.
TOTAL
FEES
Building Type
Units
Review
Fee
Plumbing
Fee
Fee
PERMIT FEES
PER UNIT
3-Story Townhomes (3-Bed)
26
$1,511
$2,157
$3,275
$34
$550
$195,702
$7,527
3-Story Townhomes (4-Bed)
57
$1,511
$2,157
$3,275
$34
$650
$434,739
$7,627
3-Story Motor Courts
62
$2,805
$4,008
$4,964
$34
$350
$753,982
$12,161
TOTAL
145
$5,827
$8,322
$11,514
$102
$1,550
$1,384,423
$9,548
The following table details the impact fees associated with the development of Subject Site. The
total for all impact fees related to the development is $3,233,597 ($38,859 per unit for the
townhomes) and $2,811,824 ($45,352 per unit for the detached product); the total for all impact
fees allocated to the City of Tustin includes only the Park Fees per City Representatives which
results in a total of $2,436,000 as shown on the following exhibit.
City of Tustin
C/O KINGSBARN REALTY CAPITAL
November 19, 2025
Page 12
IMPACT FEES - 3-STORY TOWNHOMES
Xv ZondaT.
Fees
Fees to
Fees to
Description
Per Unit
Units
Subtotal
City of Tustin
City per Unit
Park Fees
$16,800
83
$1,394,400
$1,394,400
$16,800
East Orange County Water Dist.
$5,025
83
$417,075
$417,075
$5,025
Orange County Sanitation Dist.
$3,991
83
$331,253
$331,253
$3,991
School District Fees
$10,401
83
$863,283
$863,283
$10,401
Transportation Corridor Fees
$2,742
83
$227,586
$227,586
$2,742
Affordable Housing Fees
$0
0
$0
$0
$0
Total:
$38,959
83
$3,233,597
$3,233,597
$38,959
City of Tustin Portion (Park Fees):
$16,800
83
$1,394,400
$1,394,400
$16,800
IMPACT FEES - 3-STORY MOTOR COURTS
Fees
Fees to
Fees to
Description
Per Unit
Units
Subtotal
City of Tustin
City per Unit
Park Fees
$16,800
62
$1,041,600
$1,041,600
$16,800
East Orange County Water Dist.
$7,331
62
$454,522
$454,522
$7,331
Orange County Sanitation Dist.
$4,136
62
$256,432
$256,432
$4,136
School District Fees
$12,383
62
$767,746
$767,746
$12,383
Transportation Corridor Fees
$4,702
62
$291,524
$291,524
$4,702
Affordable Housing Fees
$0
62
$0
$0
$0
Total:
$45,352
62
$2,811,824
$2,811,824
$45,352
City of Tustin Portion (Park Fees):
$16,800
83
$1,041,600
$1,041,600
$16,800
Source: City of Tustin & Client Provided Estimates
III. JOBS CREATION AND TOTAL ECONOMIC IMPACT
For the construction phase of the project, we estimate approximately 40 direct one-time jobs
and expect those jobs to induce another 20 indirect jobs, for a total of roughly 60 jobs.1
One Time Jobs Analysis - Full Time Equivalent Jobs
One Time Direct Jobs (Construction & Management) 40
One Time Indirect Jobs (Vendors, Suppliers, Etc.) 20
Total One Time Jobs Estimate 60
We estimate that there will be four direct ongoing jobs from this project and expect these jobs
to create another two indirect jobs, for a total of approximately six jobs. Currently, the Subject
Site buildings are 40% vacant; assuming a "normal" occupancy rate of 80%, this would result in
+/-84,025 square feet of occupied space. Assuming one employee per 288 square feet (consistent
with the current employee per square foot at the Subject) would yield 292 office jobs that the
Subject Site could hypothetically accommodate.
Note: the jobs created estimate is based on feedback from homebuilder representatives and our
experience in economic impact studies.
City of Tustin
C/O KINGSBARN REALTY CAPITAL
November 19, 2025
Page 13
Xv ZondaT.
Ongoing Jobs Estimate
Ongoing Jobs at Stabilization (Community Maintenance) 4
Implied Indirect Jobs (Vendors, Suppliers, Etc.) 2
6
Total Direct Jobs 4
Total Indirect Jobs 2
Total Ongoing Jobs Estimate 6
Minus Current Jobs Estimate in Existing Office Buildings -50
Net Ongoing Jobs -44
It is important to note that the average annual salary for construction laborers is $47,490, and
the annual average wage for construction managers is $103,770—these are one-time, direct Jobs
associated with the development. We expect total annual economic activity from jobs at
stabilization from the Subject Project to be approximately $2.440 million in annual salaries;
subtracting an estimated $899,940 from current jobs within the existing office buildings yields a
net gain of $1,540,398 in wages. This incremental spending will accrue to the entire County of
Orange, in addition to the City of Tustin.
Salary No. of Employees Total Annual
Construction Laborers
$47,490
33
$1,567,170
Construction Managers
$103,770
4
$415,080
Grounds Maintenance Workers, All Other
$37,810
4
$151,240
Real Estate Sales Agents
$89,944
2
$179,888
Managers, All Other
$126,960
1
$126,960
New Residential Development Jobs Total
$55,462
44
$2,440,338
Minus Current Jobs Estimate in Existing Office Buildings
$74,995
-50
($3,749,750)
TOTAL JOBS AND ANNUAL SALARIES
($1,309,412)
Source: Zonda, Indeed, Carreer Explorer, BLS
Hypothetically, if the Subject Site were 80% occupied and had +/-292 office jobs as mentioned,
an average salary of $74,995 would yield $21,898,540 in total wages from office employees in
the project.
IV. SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS
Our analysis indicates that the proposed Subject Site project will result in $7,849,843 in direct
fiscal revenue to Tustin during the first five years of the Project's planning, construction, home
sales & closings (within 5 years), and commercial development, and $11,588,921 over the next
20 years.
Moreover, we estimate that the project's construction phase will create and/or support
approximately 60 jobs. In comparison, the ongoing operation of the finished project and job
City of Tustin '/, Zonda-
C/O KINGSBARN REALTY CAPITAL
November 19, 2025
Page 14
losses from the loss of existing office tenants will generate a total of -50 net jobs. This will be
replaced by residents moving to the Subject Property, as well as the additional property taxes to
the City.
Additionally, the Subject Site office property comprises 105,031 square feet, of which
approximately 42,012 square feet is vacant. Given the office space within 1 mile, it appears there
is sufficient vacant office space in other buildings to the west and south of the site to reasonably
absorb any tenants currently occupying space at the Subject Site.
* * * * * * * * * * * *
We appreciate the opportunity to conduct this analysis on your behalf and welcome any
questions or comments you may have.